Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy36 ratings
Bullish2055.5%
Neutral1541.7%
Bearish12.8%
Valero Energy Corporation · VLO · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Valero’s Q3 beat was led by refining and ethanol strength
The quarter supports a constructive near-term operating case for Valero: refining and ethanol strength, tight fuel inventories and shareholder returns outweighed renewable diesel weakness. The durability of that case depends on margins, crude differentials, policy support and execution of planned projects and the Benicia closure.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$116.98B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.66
Consensus $3.05
EPS surprise
+20.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$32.17B
Consensus $29.96B
Revenue surprise
+7.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+7.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.3%
Up to 20 sessions
VLOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about VLO FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did VLO rise 7.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in VLO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for VLO after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the reported quarter showed stronger operating momentum: refinery utilization and ethanol performance reached records, shareholder returns increased, and renewable diesel weakened to a loss. The forward plan now includes the $230 million St. Charles FCC optimization project for 2026, while Benicia closure depreciation remains a stated headwind.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management reaffirmed 2025 capital investment guidance and continued to emphasize shareholder returns.
Key takeaways
- Q3 net income was $1.1 billion, with earnings above consensus in the supplied scorecard.
- Refinery utilization reached 97%, while ethanol production and earnings were described as records.
- Renewable diesel swung to a loss; management expects margin recovery in Q4.
- Management highlighted a $230 million St. Charles FCC optimization project for 2026 and returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in Q3.
Management priorities
- Execute the St. Charles FCC optimization project in 2026.
- Maintain share repurchases using excess free cash flow.
- Execute the planned 2025 capital investment program while managing the Benicia closure.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$406.3Current
$85Low
$240.06Average
$457High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 16, 2024 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 18, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 22, 2016 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 13, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 27, 2015 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Dec 1, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Feb 4, 2014 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $406.3. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $457 | $377.14 | +12.5% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $401 | $393.27 | -1.3% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $387.6 | +10.8% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $411 | $398.34 | +1.2% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $370.72 | +10.8% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $435 | $366.09 | +7.1% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $389 | $358.92 | -4.3% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $307.58 | -26.2% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $312.9 | -13.9% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $355 | $308.12 | -12.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $356 | $311.71 | -12.4% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $323 | $311.71 | -20.5% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $357 | $314.8 | -12.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $290.62 | -16.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $312 | $267.76 | -23.2% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $279 | $260.44 | -31.3% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $255.6 | -37.2% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $280 | $259.84 | -31.1% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $241.45 | -28.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $232 | $244.8 | -42.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $233.83 | -45.4% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $226.28 | -50.0% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $263 | $239.64 | -35.3% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $215 | $181.52 | -47.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $179.31 | -55.2% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $181.28 | -45.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $183.28 | -55.7% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $178 | $184.52 | -56.2% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $197 | $191.32 | -51.5% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $217 | $183.86 | -46.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $192 | $171.94 | -52.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $183 | $173.15 | -55.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $201 | $173.13 | -50.5% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $173.13 | -52.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $181 | $157.04 | -55.5% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $162.01 | -52.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $163.42 | -58.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $175 | $164.7 | -56.9% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $190 | $157.57 | -53.2% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $161.83 | -56.4% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $154.28 | -60.1% | Sep 2, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $164 | $147.06 | -59.6% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $127 | $113.87 | -68.7% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $151 | $113.87 | -62.8% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $126.85 | -64.6% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $159 | $133 | -60.9% | Jan 31, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $149 | $127.15 | -63.3% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $160 | $132.32 | -60.6% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $150 | $135.52 | -63.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $141 | $139.36 | -65.3% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $165 | $139.36 | -59.4% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $165 | $144.03 | -59.4% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $123 | $138.69 | -69.7% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $177 | $150.05 | -56.4% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $175 | $150.05 | -56.9% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $173 | $146.64 | -57.4% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $156 | $146.64 | -61.6% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $171 | $149.94 | -57.9% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $169 | $149.97 | -58.4% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $187 | $154.62 | -54.0% | May 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $184 | $180.37 | -54.7% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $198 | $177.22 | -51.3% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $197 | $168.49 | -51.5% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $173 | $169.64 | -57.4% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $154 | $123.17 | -62.1% | Nov 22, 2023 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $142 | $128 | -65.1% | Aug 8, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $174 | $136.71 | -57.2% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $135.63 | -58.4% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $124.59 | -65.5% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $119.37 | -59.4% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $106.67 | -67.8% | Sep 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $114.08 | -63.6% | Sep 12, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $122.11 | -63.1% | Aug 24, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $113.37 | -65.8% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $106.31 | -65.1% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $104.59 | -65.5% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $103.98 | -67.3% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $166 | $107.98 | -59.1% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $128.12 | -63.1% | May 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $123.3 | -66.8% | May 23, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $136 | $122.98 | -66.5% | May 21, 2022 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $120 | $111.48 | -70.5% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.48 | -70.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $105.14 | -70.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $105.14 | -69.0% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $105.14 | -69.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $101.79 | -70.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $125 | $103.05 | -69.2% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $108.07 | -70.0% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $121 | $110.35 | -70.2% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | TJ Schultz | $108 | $100.9 | -73.4% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $105 | $84.94 | -74.2% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $100 | $85.98 | -75.4% | Mar 5, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $95 | $80.24 | -76.6% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $94 | $83.26 | -76.9% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $85 | $72.62 | -79.1% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Bill Selesky | $93 | $79.93 | -77.1% | Oct 26, 2021 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $97 | $80.72 | -76.1% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $90 | $66.81 | -77.8% | Apr 12, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationValero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company organizes its business across three primary divisions: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. Its Refining segment generates a wide array of products, including various types of gasoline (conventional, premium, reformulated, and California Air Resources Board-compliant), diverse diesel fuels (low-sulfur, ultra-low-sulfur, and CARB diesel), jet fuels, blendstocks, asphalts, petrochemicals, and lubricants. This division also handles the sale of lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of the end of 2021, Valero managed 15 petroleum refineries, boasting a combined daily processing capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels of crude oil. The Ethanol division comprises 12 plants, capable of producing around 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually.…
Historical context
All VLO earningsLatest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T07:20:43.962607+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T07:20:43.959872+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.