Tesla, Inc. · TSLA · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Tesla Q3: FSD, Robotaxi and Megapack momentum drive expansion

Tesla's Q3 analysis supports a growth case built on expanding FSD adoption, Robotaxi mileage, energy-storage demand and new products. The counterweight is execution: regulatory approvals, capital intensity, operating expenses and the uncertain timing of meaningful Robotaxi and Optimus economics.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $1526.38B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.48 Consensus $0.45
EPS surprise +7.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $28.05B Consensus $28.06B
Revenue surprise -0.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move +3.4% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +2.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
TSLASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The supplied analysis emphasizes stronger FSD adoption, rapid Cybercab mileage growth, record Megapack demand and improving energy gross margin. It also adds more detail on early Optimus production, the AI5 timeline and Terafab investment.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a change in formal guidance.

Key takeaways

  • FSD subscription rates exceeded 75% of North American deliveries, according to the supplied analysis.
  • Megapack deployments reached 13.7 GWh, while reported gross margin improved to 33.1% in the supplied analysis.
  • Cybercab, Optimus, AI5 and Terafab remain major investment and execution priorities.

Management priorities

  • Expand FSD and Cybercab Robotaxi availability across additional markets and cities.
  • Scale Megapack and solar manufacturing while developing Megapack 3.
  • Ramp Optimus, integrate the AI5 chip, and continue factory and Terafab construction.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TSLA REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $25B Q2 '24 actual $26B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $25B Q3 '24 actual $25B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $22B Q2 '25 actual $22B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $27B Q3 '25 actual $28B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $25B Q4 '25 actual $25B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $22B Q1 '26 actual $22B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $26B Q2 '26 actual $28B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $28B Q3 '26 actual $28B, match Q4 '26 estimate $29B Q1 '27 estimate $26B Q2 '27 estimate $30B Q3 '27 estimate $32B
Show 2 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold80 ratings
Bullish3543.8%
Neutral3037.5%
Bearish1518.7%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$386.47Previous close
$85Low
$322.17Average
$840High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 20, 2026
GLJ Research Sell SellMaintainOct 15, 2026
Jefferies Hold HoldMaintainOct 12, 2026
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainOct 8, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 7, 2026
Show 76 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $386.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSJoseph Spak$391$380.68 +1.2%Oct 7, 2026
HSBCMichael Tyndall$157$370.59 -59.4%Oct 5, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$360$356.58 -6.8%Sep 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyAndrew Percoco$840$365.44 +117.4%Sep 12, 2026
Stifel NicolausStephen Gengaro$491$311.21 +27.0%Aug 3, 2026
See 262 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network.…

Historical context

All TSLA earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -20.9% -1.7% LVS: Strong Macau Share Gains Offset Softer High-End Demand
GPC Genuine Parts Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% -5.1% GPC Q3 2026: Industrial Strength, Automation, and Split Progress

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-22T08:03:28.373628+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-22T01:23:13.354406+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T08:10:43.573125+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T08:10:43.570495+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.