Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold5 ratings
Bullish360.0%
Neutral120.0%
Bearish120.0%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · TPL · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
TPL: Record quarter, water expansion, and execution risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive long-term operating thesis for TPL, but with important conditions: Permian inventory and water opportunities provide potential growth while commodity exposure, regulatory approvals, operator activity, and desalination execution remain material risks.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$23.85B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.68
Consensus $1.83
EPS surprise
-8.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$187.5M
Consensus $198.0M
Revenue surprise
-5.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-8.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.5%
Up to 20 sessions
TPLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TPL FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TPL fall 8.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in TPL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for TPL after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasized record quarterly performance, continued confidence in Permian development, and a broader water strategy that includes produced-water royalties, pore-space acquisitions, desalination, and possible power or data-center applications. Relative to the prior analysis, the focus shifted toward execution of the desalination project and expansion beyond the core basin.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained; no new quantified guidance change was supplied.
Key takeaways
- Management described record quarterly revenue and EBITDA margin despite a low WTI average.
- The long-term case rests on Permian inventory, royalty production, produced-water demand, and easement income.
- Water-related expansion includes produced-water royalties, pore-space acquisitions, and a desalination project.
- Potential power-generation and data-center cooling applications broaden the water opportunity but remain development areas.
- The main counterweights are commodity sensitivity, operator activity, regulatory approvals, and project execution.
Management priorities
- Complete and commission the Phase 2b desalination facility.
- Expand the out-of-basin pore-space portfolio and pursue additional mineral assets.
- Deploy capital opportunistically across buybacks, organic projects, and strategic acquisitions.
- Develop partnerships involving power generation, cogeneration, and data-center cooling using produced water.
- Continue technology improvements intended to enhance well economics.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$357.78Previous close
$350Low
$494.5Average
$639High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $357.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $639 | $517.36 | +78.6% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $350 | $284.58 | -2.2% | Dec 1, 2025 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTexas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services. Its Land and Resource Management division oversees a vast land portfolio, spanning nearly 880,000 acres. This segment also holds significant oil and gas royalty interests. These include perpetual non-participating royalty interests (NPRIs) covering approximately 85,000 acres (at a 1/128th rate) and about 371,000 acres (at a 1/16th rate). Furthermore, it possesses around 4,000 additional net royalty acres, primarily located in West Texas.…
Historical context
All TPL earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T10:20:44.549265+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T10:20:44.546542+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.