Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold5 ratings
Bullish360.0%
Neutral120.0%
Bearish120.0%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · TPL · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
TPL: Record operating performance, water expansion, and acquisition focus
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view of TPL's operating trajectory: resilient royalty performance, expanding water infrastructure, and acquisition activity provide support, while commodity sensitivity, water-sales execution, regulatory approvals, and acquisition availability remain the key tests.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$23.77B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.76
Consensus $1.92
EPS surprise
-8.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$203.1M
Consensus $175.0M
Revenue surprise
+16.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+10.0%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+11.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-8.5%
Up to 20 sessions
TPLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TPL FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TPL rise 10.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TPL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TPL after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasizes continued record operating performance, stronger water activity, expanded royalty and surface acreage, and progress toward desalination commissioning. Relative to the prior analysis, the focus remains on water commercialization, out-of-basin or adjacent asset opportunities, and using land assets for potential power and data-center projects.
Guidance delta
No formal guidance delta was provided in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management described record revenue and production despite weak oil prices.
- The water segment posted record sales as infrastructure expansion continued.
- The balance sheet was described as strong, supporting royalty and surface-acreage acquisitions.
- Desalination and potential power-generation or data-center projects remain part of the growth agenda.
Management priorities
- Commission the desalination facility and advance its next phase.
- Pursue additional royalty and surface-acreage acquisitions.
- Expand water infrastructure and explore waste-heat capture.
- Develop land opportunities for power-generation and data-center projects.
- Provide updates on regulatory permits and commercialization plans.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$344.67Previous close
$350Low
$494.5Average
$639High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $344.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $639 | $517.36 | +85.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $350 | $284.58 | +1.5% | Dec 1, 2025 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTexas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services. Its Land and Resource Management division oversees a vast land portfolio, spanning nearly 880,000 acres. This segment also holds significant oil and gas royalty interests. These include perpetual non-participating royalty interests (NPRIs) covering approximately 85,000 acres (at a 1/128th rate) and about 371,000 acres (at a 1/16th rate). Furthermore, it possesses around 4,000 additional net royalty acres, primarily located in West Texas.…
Historical context
All TPL earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the TPL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T07:40:44.326395+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T07:40:44.323626+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.