Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold5 ratings
Bullish360.0%
Neutral120.0%
Bearish120.0%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · TPL · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
TPL: Acquisitions and Water Expansion Extend Permian Growth Plan
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: Permian production, water-related growth and acquisitions strengthen TPL's earnings-growth case, while desalination execution, permits, commodity prices and capital-allocation tradeoffs remain material tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$23.75B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus —
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus —
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.4%
Up to 20 sessions
TPLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TPL FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TPL's -0.4% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in TPL's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TPL after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the latest analysis emphasizes the completion path for Phase 2b desalination, additional water-reuse permits, continued acquisition activity and partnerships linking water and energy resources to data-center infrastructure. The supplied analysis also identifies a 2025 capital-spending target of $65 million to $75 million and continued shareholder returns.
Guidance delta
No guidance change was provided in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted record 2024 performance, including higher royalty volumes, water sales and produced-water royalties.
- The company added more than $400 million of Permian mineral, royalty, water and surface assets in 2024 and described its acquisition pipeline as robust.
- Desalination, water reuse, power generation and data-center infrastructure broaden the growth plan beyond traditional royalties.
- Shareholder returns remain a priority alongside a 2025 capital-spending target of $65 million to $75 million.
Management priorities
- Advance the 10,000-barrel-per-day Phase 2b desalination test facility and evaluate behind-the-grid gas generation.
- Secure additional water-reuse and discharge permits.
- Pursue further high-quality mineral, royalty, water and surface acquisitions.
- Develop water, power and data-center infrastructure partnerships while maintaining dividends and repurchases.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$333.13Current
$350Low
$494.5Average
$639High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $333.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $639 | $517.36 | +91.8% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $350 | $284.58 | +5.1% | Dec 1, 2025 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTexas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services. Its Land and Resource Management division oversees a vast land portfolio, spanning nearly 880,000 acres. This segment also holds significant oil and gas royalty interests. These include perpetual non-participating royalty interests (NPRIs) covering approximately 85,000 acres (at a 1/128th rate) and about 371,000 acres (at a 1/16th rate). Furthermore, it possesses around 4,000 additional net royalty acres, primarily located in West Texas.…
Historical context
All TPL earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.2% | +1.2% | KMI Q3: Record backlog expands long-term gas infrastructure runway |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- RSFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+17.4% EPS-0.7% move
- CACIFY2027 Q1 · October 21, 2026+16.6% EPS-1.5% move
- WCNFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+3.9% EPS+8.8% move
- KMIFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+9.2% EPS+1.2% move
- TXNFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+7.4% EPS+2.5% move
- SEICFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+3.8% EPS+1.2% move
Missed on EPS
- GL-PDFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-1.2% EPS— move
- GLFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-1.2% EPS-3.8% move
- METAFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-41.4% EPS+0.5% move
- LVSFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-20.9% EPS-1.7% move
- MCOFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-2.6% EPS+1.2% move
- CCIFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-2.5% EPS-3.1% move
Get the TPL recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-05T00:02:40.001238+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T15:50:45.915106+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T15:50:45.912405+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.