Waste Connections raises 2026 outlook after strong Q3

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the company reported stronger Q3 operating results, raised its full-year 2026 outlook again, and disclosed $130 million of annualized acquisition revenue year to date. Management also emphasized a 10% dividend increase, more than $1 billion of completed repurchases, and a later timeline for material AI margin benefits.

Guidance delta

Management raised the full-year 2026 outlook to $10.09 billion of revenue and $3.345 billion of adjusted EBITDA, with a 33.2% margin.

Key takeaways

• Q3 revenue rose 7.3% year over year to $2.638 billion, while adjusted EBITDA reached $895.8 million at a 34% margin.
• Acquisitions contributed $130 million of annualized revenue year to date, with more transactions in the pipeline.
• RNG facilities, recycling, pricing, and operational initiatives remain central to incremental growth and margin.
• Management also highlighted a 10% dividend increase and more than $1 billion of share repurchases completed.

Management priorities

• Continue strategic acquisitions and expand the pipeline through 2026 and 2027.
• Complete the remaining RNG capital-expenditure program and expand renewable-gas sales.
• Roll out AI applications across operations, with material margin impact expected in 2028-29.
• Expand rail and intermodal capacity while continuing sustainability and recycling automation investments.