Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish11100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Smurfit Westrock plc · SW · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Smurfit Westrock Maintains EBITDA Guidance Despite Freight and Energy Costs
The quarter provides evidence for a resilient-demand and earnings-growth case: paper grades were sold out, pricing initiatives were progressing, and management maintained full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. The counterevidence is meaningful cost and execution risk, including a disclosed $300 million freight headwind, inventory mismatches, and the need to eliminate remaining loss-making assets.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$24.36B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.35
Consensus $0.40
EPS surprise
-13.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$8.03B
Consensus $7.93B
Revenue surprise
+1.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.0%
Event window
SPY move
-1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.7%
Up to 20 sessions
SWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SW FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SW fall 5.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in SW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for SW after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Q2 showed higher adjusted EBITDA and margin, but also a substantially larger freight headwind, an inventory mismatch disclosure, and closure of a long-standing UK recycled-board asset. Management maintained full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance while emphasizing price recovery, capex, and footprint optimization.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was maintained at $4.9-$5.1 billion.
Key takeaways
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $1.14 billion, with a 14.2% margin.
- Management said paper grades were sold out across regions and highlighted progress in pricing and asset optimization.
- Freight and energy costs remain significant headwinds; management also disclosed inventory mismatches and continued footprint rationalization.
Management priorities
- Continue price pass-through initiatives, including a planned $100-per-tonne containerboard increase in 2027.
- Invest $2.4-$2.5 billion of capex in asset efficiency and growth markets.
- Reduce remaining loss-making corrugated plants and pursue integration synergies, experience centers, and innovation hubs.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$46.85Current
$45Low
$60.6Average
$170High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $46.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.25 | +23.8% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Nomura | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $50.02 | +262.9% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $54 | $49.18 | +15.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $60 | $47.63 | +28.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.56 | +51.5% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $45.39 | +21.7% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $52 | $37.13 | +11.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $57 | $41.96 | +21.7% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $39.28 | +6.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $41.3 | +15.3% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $41.84 | +13.1% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $61 | $51.84 | +30.2% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.56 | +19.5% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.27 | +28.1% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $58 | $51.43 | +23.8% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $55 | $50.28 | +17.4% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $40.07 | +4.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $40.07 | +2.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $38.14 | +8.9% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Alexandra Yates | $45 | $35.52 | -3.9% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $52 | $36.92 | +11.0% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $41.52 | +17.4% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $52 | $40.31 | +11.0% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.6 | +11.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $60 | $44.47 | +28.1% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.54 | +21.7% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $58 | $50.07 | +23.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $57 | $44.54 | +21.7% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $51 | $45.4 | +8.9% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $52 | $48.81 | +11.0% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $60 | $46.82 | +28.1% | Jul 18, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Historical context
All SW earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +22.3% | +3.0% | Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.7% | -14.2% | Casey's Q1: Prepared Food Drives Growth as Fuel Margins Stay Volatile |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +63.1% | -17.4% | Lululemon lowers FY2026 outlook as North America weakens |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
Get the SW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-30T17:06:49.476760+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T15:10:56.239847+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T15:10:56.236541+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.