Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish11100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Smurfit Westrock plc · SW · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Smurfit Westrock outlines 2026 growth plan after record 2025 EBITDA
The transcript supports a constructive but execution-dependent outlook: record 2025 profitability, portfolio optimisation, consumer packaging growth and innovation provide support, while volume, pricing, cost and integration risks could limit progress.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$23.13B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.34
Consensus $0.48
EPS surprise
-28.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.58B
Consensus $7.57B
Revenue surprise
+0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+9.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+9.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-21.0%
Up to 20 sessions
SWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SW FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SW rise 9.9% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in SW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for SW after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The outlook became more constructive versus the prior quarter: guidance sentiment moved from lowered to maintained, management presented a $5.0-$5.3 billion 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook, and the discussion expanded toward a 2030 plan, AI-enabled tools and targeted acquisitions.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained, with 2026 adjusted EBITDA projected at $5.0-$5.3 billion versus the prior quarter's $4.9-$5.1 billion outlook.
Key takeaways
- Management reported record 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $4.94 billion and $1.5 billion of free cash flow.
- The medium-term plan targets $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA by 2030, with portfolio optimisation, consumer packaging and innovation as key drivers.
- Capital investment, AI-enabled tools and targeted bolt-on acquisitions support the plan, while volume, downtime and cost risks remain.
Management priorities
- Portfolio optimisation and loss-making asset divestitures.
- North American profit growth, consumer packaging expansion and cross-selling.
- AI-enabled innovation, automation, strategic capex and targeted acquisitions.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$43.04Current
$45Low
$60.6Average
$170High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $43.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.25 | +34.8% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Nomura | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $50.02 | +295.0% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $54 | $49.18 | +25.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $60 | $47.63 | +39.4% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.56 | +65.0% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $45.39 | +32.4% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $52 | $37.13 | +20.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $57 | $41.96 | +32.4% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $39.28 | +16.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $41.3 | +25.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $41.84 | +23.1% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $61 | $51.84 | +41.7% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.56 | +30.1% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.27 | +39.4% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $58 | $51.43 | +34.8% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $55 | $50.28 | +27.8% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $40.07 | +13.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $40.07 | +11.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $38.14 | +18.5% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Alexandra Yates | $45 | $35.52 | +4.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $52 | $36.92 | +20.8% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $41.52 | +27.8% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $52 | $40.31 | +20.8% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.6 | +20.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $60 | $44.47 | +39.4% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.54 | +32.4% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $58 | $50.07 | +34.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $57 | $44.54 | +32.4% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $51 | $45.4 | +18.5% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $52 | $48.81 | +20.8% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $60 | $46.82 | +39.4% | Jul 18, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Historical context
All SW earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.9% | +13.4% | Carnival posts record Q3 as demand and efficiency offset fuel costs |
| DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -3.0% | Darden reaffirms FY2027 outlook as brands deliver mixed comp growth |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.6% | +3.3% | AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan |
| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | — | Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | -4.1% | Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds |
| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +22.3% | +3.0% | Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the SW recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T21:36:04.610751+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T21:36:04.608524+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.