Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish11100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Smurfit Westrock plc · SW · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Smurfit WestRock delivers solid Q3 but trims full-year EBITDA outlook
The quarter supports a constructive view of Smurfit WestRock’s operational improvement, with solid Q3 profitability, cash generation, capacity rationalization and product-mix initiatives. That evidence is offset by lowered full-year EBITDA guidance, European market weakness and potential Q4 downtime, so the next-year case remains dependent on execution and demand stabilization.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$22.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.58
Consensus $0.68
EPS surprise
-14.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$8.00B
Consensus $7.63B
Revenue surprise
+4.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-12.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-12.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.4%
Up to 20 sessions
SWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SW FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SW fall 12.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in SW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for SW after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management reported stronger Q3 adjusted EBITDA and margin, continued footprint optimization and progress toward the synergy target. The main change was a lower full-year EBITDA outlook, alongside a stable 2026 capex plan and additional disclosure on product-mix and energy projects.
Guidance delta
Full-year EBITDA guidance was trimmed to $4.9–$5.1 billion from the prior outlook; 2026 capex is planned at $2.4–$2.5 billion.
Key takeaways
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $1.3 billion with a 16.3% margin, according to the supplied analysis.
- Management highlighted 500,000 tons of capacity closures, continued footprint optimization and progress toward $400 million of full-run synergies.
- Strong operating cash flow and free cash flow supported the quarter, while European demand and potential Q4 downtime remain the main near-term watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Continue asset closures, capacity rationalization and synergy delivery
- Execute the 2026 capex program across growth, efficiency and sustainability
- Advance Covington and Colombia energy projects
- Expand higher-margin SBS and CUK product mix
- Develop longer-term targets for February 2026
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$42.41Current
$45Low
$60.6Average
$170High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $42.41. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.25 | +36.8% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Nomura | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $50.02 | +300.8% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $54 | $49.18 | +27.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $60 | $47.63 | +41.5% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.56 | +67.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $45.39 | +34.4% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $52 | $37.13 | +22.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $57 | $41.96 | +34.4% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $39.28 | +17.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $41.3 | +27.3% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $41.84 | +25.0% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $61 | $51.84 | +43.8% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.56 | +32.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.27 | +41.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $58 | $51.43 | +36.8% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $55 | $50.28 | +29.7% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $40.07 | +15.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $40.07 | +13.2% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $38.14 | +20.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Alexandra Yates | $45 | $35.52 | +6.1% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $52 | $36.92 | +22.6% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $41.52 | +29.7% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $52 | $40.31 | +22.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.6 | +22.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $60 | $44.47 | +41.5% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.54 | +34.4% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $58 | $50.07 | +36.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $57 | $44.54 | +34.4% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $51 | $45.4 | +20.3% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $52 | $48.81 | +22.6% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $60 | $46.82 | +41.5% | Jul 18, 2024 |
Track every rating change on SW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Historical context
All SW earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the SW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T00:00:48.184522+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T00:00:48.180835+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.