Super Micro Computer, Inc. · SMCI · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2024

AI demand remains strong, but execution risks temper the outlook

The supplied analysis supports durable AI demand as a growth driver, but the evidence is mixed for a straightforward bullish conclusion: product demand and capacity expansion are constructive, while chip timing, margins, audit matters, and inventory create material execution risks.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $21.09B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.75
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $6.45B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -18.1% Event window
SPY move +2.5% Same window
Abnormal move -20.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +81.2% Up to 20 sessions
SMCISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior analysis, the current quarter adds evidence of continued AI and liquid-cooling demand but places more emphasis on Blackwell timing, audit remediation, inventory, and near-term margin pressure.

Guidance delta

The supplied analysis describes next-quarter revenue guidance with modest margin compression, but does not provide a directional guidance assessment.

Key takeaways

  • Management remains confident in AI demand and direct-liquid-cooling adoption.
  • The quarter’s growth was constrained by Blackwell availability and missed the upper end of prior guidance.
  • Audit remediation, inventory discipline, and manufacturing expansion are central execution issues.
  • New rack, cooling, and software offerings are intended to support the next phase of growth.

Management priorities

  • Resolve audit and filing matters.
  • Ramp the Malaysia manufacturing campus and broader global capacity.
  • Scale direct-liquid-cooling racks, SuperRack, and Super Cloud Composer.
  • Develop and deploy Blackwell-based server and cooling systems.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
SMCI REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $4B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $5B Q3 '24 actual $4B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $5B Q4 '24 actual $5B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $6B Q4 '25 actual $6B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $6B Q1 '26 actual $5B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $10B Q2 '26 actual $13B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $12B Q3 '26 actual $10B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $12B Q4 '26 actual $11B, miss Q1 '27 estimate $15B Q2 '27 estimate $13B Q3 '27 estimate $13B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1035.7%
Neutral1657.1%
Bearish27.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$32.1Current
$25Low
$44.77Average
$100High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 8, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 6, 2026
Wedbush Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 12, 2026
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainAug 12, 2026
Show 23 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $32.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesVijay Rakesh$43$43.19 +34.0%Oct 6, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$42$37.61 +30.8%Aug 13, 2026
Raymond JamesSimon Leopold$48$35.78 +49.5%Aug 12, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$42$35.68 +30.8%Aug 12, 2026
WedbushMatt Bryson$40$35.82 +24.6%Aug 12, 2026
See 45 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.…

Historical context

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Technology peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-20T05:10:44.853849+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-20T05:10:44.850954+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-20. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.