Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish936.0%
Neutral1456.0%
Bearish28.0%
Super Micro Computer, Inc. · SMCI · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026
SMCI Q3 Revenue Misses on Site Delays, but Margin Rebound and EPS Beat Drive 24% Rally
Super Micro's Q3 results tell a two-sided story: revenue missed estimates by 17% as customer site readiness delays pushed shipments out, but earnings quality improved sharply — gross margin recovered to 10.1% from 6.4%, driving a 36% EPS beat. Record backlog confirms demand is intact; timing is the issue. The stock's initial 24% rally reflected relief on margins and demand visibility, though shares have since retraced. The export-control investigation and customer concentration remain the principal risks, while DCBBS expansion and next-gen AI platform launches anchor the growth case.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$17.94B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.84
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+36.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.24B
Consensus $12.39B
Revenue surprise
-17.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$27.73Current
$25Low
$45.83Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJS Securities | Market Perform | Market Underperform | Upgrade | May 6, 2026 |
| Northland Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 23, 2026 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Mar 24, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2025 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 11, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Negative | Negative | Maintain | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 27, 2019 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 18, 2017 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2016 |
| Pacific Crest | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2016 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 28, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 28, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $27.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $31.68 | +29.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $45 | $25.5 | +62.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $46 | $25.5 | +65.9% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $44 | $46.09 | +58.7% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $36 | $33.52 | +29.8% | May 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $31.9 | +62.3% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $27.83 | +8.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $33 | $29.67 | +19.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $29.67 | +44.2% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tim Long | $38 | $29.67 | +37.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $30.12 | -6.2% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $30.22 | +11.8% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $64 | $42.48 | +130.8% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $43.76 | +127.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $43.58 | +22.6% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $51 | $43.86 | +83.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.4 | +116.4% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $47.92 | +141.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $30 | $47.92 | +8.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $53 | $47.92 | +91.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $40 | $44.79 | +44.2% | May 19, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $59 | $32.94 | +112.8% | May 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $34 | $32.32 | +22.6% | May 6, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $37.05 | +152.4% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $42.95 | +112.8% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $25 | $26.78 | -9.8% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $28 | $26.78 | +1.0% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $45 | $33.07 | +62.3% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $100 | $46.44 | +260.6% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $60 | $43.94 | +116.4% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $45 | $44.91 | +62.3% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $43.8 | $44.18 | +58.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $37.5 | $41.99 | +35.2% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $67.5 | $49.14 | +143.4% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ruplu Bhattacharya | $70 | $61.69 | +152.4% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $69.3 | $61.69 | +149.9% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $80 | $73.83 | +188.5% | May 1, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $96 | $72.55 | +246.2% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $150 | $88.28 | +440.9% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $135 | $115.38 | +386.8% | Mar 6, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $25 | $41.62 | -9.8% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $30 | $27.4 | +8.2% | Aug 10, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $8.8 | $6.42 | -68.3% | Aug 12, 2022 |
Track every rating change on SMCI the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+24.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+23.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+35.3%
Up to 20 sessions
SMCISPY benchmark
Follow SMCI with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Revenue of $10.24B grew 123% YoY but missed the $12.39B consensus by 17.3% and declined sequentially from Q2's $12.7B, as customer site readiness delays deferred shipments. EPS of $0.84 beat the $0.617 estimate by 36%, powered by a non-GAAP gross margin rebound to 10.1% (up 58% QoQ from 6.4%). Backlog reached record highs. Customer concentration improved — top customer dropped from 63% to 27% of revenue. Management disclosed a federal export-control indictment of former employees and established a $1.8B Taiwan credit facility. Q4 guidance was maintained at $11–12.5B. Capex outlook shifted from increasing to decreasing.
Guidance delta
Q4 revenue guidance maintained at $11–12.5B, below the prior quarter's $12.3B Q3 target that was missed. Full-year guidance was previously raised to at least $40B in Q2. Guidance sentiment shifted from raised to maintained, and the capex outlook moved from increasing to decreasing. Management signaled modest margin expectations for Q4.
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue of $10.24B grew 123% YoY but missed estimates by 17% and declined sequentially due to customer site readiness delays
- Non-GAAP gross margin rebounded to 10.1%, up 58% QoQ from 6.4% in Q2, driving a 36% EPS beat ($0.84 vs $0.62 estimated)
- Record-high backlog and backorder levels signal demand remains strong despite the sequential revenue dip
- Customer concentration improved: top customer fell from 63% of Q2 revenue to 27% in Q3
- DCBBS gaining traction, expected to contribute over 25% of profit in the next few years
- Federal export-control indictment of former employees disclosed; management says no earnings restatement expected
Management priorities
- Scale DCBBS offerings and SuperCloud Composer management software
- Launch Vera Rubin NVL72 SuperCluster and next-gen AMD Helios platforms
- Develop Arm-based AGI GPU solutions
- Expand U.S. DCBBS campus to over 6,000 racks per month production capacity
- Strengthen global trade compliance and governance amid ongoing export investigation
Related earnings events
TechnologySources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T03:43:25.038528+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T03:43:25.034684+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.