Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1035.7%
Neutral1657.1%
Bearish27.2%
Super Micro Computer, Inc. · SMCI · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2024
AI demand remains strong, but execution risks temper the outlook
The supplied analysis supports durable AI demand as a growth driver, but the evidence is mixed for a straightforward bullish conclusion: product demand and capacity expansion are constructive, while chip timing, margins, audit matters, and inventory create material execution risks.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$21.09B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.75
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $6.45B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-18.1%
Event window
SPY move
+2.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-20.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+81.2%
Up to 20 sessions
SMCISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SMCI FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove SMCI's -18.1% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in SMCI's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for SMCI after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior analysis, the current quarter adds evidence of continued AI and liquid-cooling demand but places more emphasis on Blackwell timing, audit remediation, inventory, and near-term margin pressure.
Guidance delta
The supplied analysis describes next-quarter revenue guidance with modest margin compression, but does not provide a directional guidance assessment.
Key takeaways
- Management remains confident in AI demand and direct-liquid-cooling adoption.
- The quarter’s growth was constrained by Blackwell availability and missed the upper end of prior guidance.
- Audit remediation, inventory discipline, and manufacturing expansion are central execution issues.
- New rack, cooling, and software offerings are intended to support the next phase of growth.
Management priorities
- Resolve audit and filing matters.
- Ramp the Malaysia manufacturing campus and broader global capacity.
- Scale direct-liquid-cooling racks, SuperRack, and Super Cloud Composer.
- Develop and deploy Blackwell-based server and cooling systems.
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$32.1Current
$25Low
$44.77Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| CJS Securities | Market Perform | Market Underperform | Upgrade | May 6, 2026 |
| Northland Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 23, 2026 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 11, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Negative | Negative | Maintain | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2024 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 27, 2019 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 18, 2017 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2016 |
| Pacific Crest | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2016 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 28, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 28, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $32.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $43 | $43.19 | +34.0% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $37.61 | +30.8% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $48 | $35.78 | +49.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $35.68 | +30.8% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $40 | $35.82 | +24.6% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $35 | $31.6 | +9.0% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.6 | +21.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $31.68 | +12.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $45 | $25.5 | +40.2% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $46 | $25.5 | +43.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $44 | $46.09 | +37.1% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $36 | $33.52 | +12.1% | May 12, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $31.9 | +40.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $27.83 | -6.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $33 | $29.67 | +2.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $29.67 | +24.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tim Long | $38 | $29.67 | +18.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $30.12 | -19.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $30.22 | -3.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $64 | $42.48 | +99.4% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $43.76 | +96.3% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $43.58 | +5.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $51 | $43.86 | +58.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.4 | +86.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $47.92 | +108.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $30 | $47.92 | -6.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Simon Leopold | $53 | $47.92 | +65.1% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $40 | $44.79 | +24.6% | May 19, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Nehal Chokshi | $59 | $32.94 | +83.8% | May 7, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Asiya Merchant | $39 | $32.32 | +21.5% | May 6, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $37.05 | +118.1% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $42.95 | +83.8% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $25 | $26.78 | -22.1% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $28 | $26.78 | -12.8% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $45 | $33.07 | +40.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $100 | $46.44 | +211.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $60 | $43.94 | +86.9% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $45 | $44.91 | +40.2% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $43.8 | $44.18 | +36.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $37.5 | $41.99 | +16.8% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $67.5 | $49.14 | +110.3% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ruplu Bhattacharya | $70 | $61.69 | +118.1% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | George Wang | $69.3 | $61.69 | +115.9% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Ng | $80 | $73.83 | +149.2% | May 1, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $96 | $72.55 | +199.1% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $150 | $88.28 | +367.3% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Jim Kelleher | $135 | $115.38 | +320.6% | Mar 6, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $25 | $41.62 | -22.1% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $30 | $27.4 | -6.5% | Aug 10, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $8.8 | $6.42 | -72.6% | Aug 12, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.…
Historical context
All SMCI earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -25.0% | +3.9% | Wipro: AI pipeline expands as Q3 guidance stays narrow |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -1.8% | TSMC beats Q3 guidance as AI demand drives fab expansion |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +28.6% | +11.8% | Ericsson Q3: 7% organic growth, resilient margins and AI-led demand |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-20T05:10:44.853849+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-20T05:10:44.850954+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-20. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.