Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1676.2%
Neutral419.0%
Bearish14.8%
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · RKLB · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Rocket Lab: Demand Is Strong, but Neutron Execution Is the Test
The supplied analysis supports strong demand as a growth driver, but it does not establish that earnings growth will translate into a durable next-year outcome. Neutron execution, rising cash use, margins, and defense-contract exposure remain the central qualifications.
Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials
$31.48B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $-0.09
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $130.6M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.1%
Up to 20 sessions
RKLBSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about RKLB FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove RKLB's +3.3% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in RKLB's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for RKLB after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasizes a record 2024, a second-half 2025 Neutron target, the Flatellite platform, and continued investment in reusable-launch infrastructure. Compared with the prior quarter, the core demand and Neutron-development narrative continued, while launch readiness, cash consumption, and margin execution remained key concerns.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained; Q1 2025 revenue guidance was $117 million to $123 million.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted record 2024 revenue and launch cadence, including 16 launches in Q4.
- The backlog exceeded $1 billion and was heavily weighted toward government and defense customers.
- Neutron remained targeted for a second-half 2025 launch, with investment in reusability and landing infrastructure.
- Flatellite broadens the satellite-manufacturing offering for high-volume constellation demand.
- The outlook pairs continued revenue growth with higher cash consumption as Neutron spending accelerates.
Management priorities
- Develop and launch Neutron with a reusable first stage.
- Scale the landing barge for future Neutron recoveries.
- Increase Flatellite production capacity.
- Pursue defense, national-security, and commercial constellation opportunities.
- Expand space-applications services beyond satellite manufacturing.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$52.6Current
$4.5Low
$81.3Average
$135High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| BTIG | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $52.6. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $120 | $55.25 | +128.1% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $59.18 | +90.1% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $68.4 | +61.6% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Brian Gesuale | $80 | $61.96 | +52.1% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $62.54 | +57.8% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $122 | $78.85 | +131.9% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $80.04 | +109.1% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $63.91 | +103.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $83 | $76.2 | +57.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $130 | $98.01 | +147.1% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Jeff Van Rhee | $120 | $98.1 | +128.1% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $135 | $102.39 | +156.7% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $105.05 | +99.6% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $132 | $114.7 | +151.0% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $116.16 | +128.1% | May 12, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $78.58 | +86.3% | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $87.75 | +99.6% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $82.93 | +90.1% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $85 | $68.37 | +61.6% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Anthony Valentini | $69 | $96.3 | +31.2% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $105 | $90.76 | +99.6% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $90 | $77.55 | +71.1% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $70.52 | +61.6% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $63 | $54.98 | +19.8% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $75 | $51.9 | +42.6% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $75 | $51.9 | +42.6% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $67 | +42.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $83 | $69.27 | +57.8% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $35 | $42.34 | -33.5% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $31 | $27.95 | -41.1% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $12 | $10.91 | -77.2% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $11 | $8.69 | -79.1% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $6 | $5.65 | -88.6% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $4.5 | $4.56 | -91.4% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $9 | $3.76 | -82.9% | May 7, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Jason Gursky | $6 | $4.66 | -88.6% | Feb 12, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $8 | $4.92 | -84.8% | Jan 17, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $10 | $4.3 | -81.0% | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $5.36 | -77.2% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $5.63 | -81.0% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Sam Boughedda | $8 | $5.52 | -84.8% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $5.99 | -71.5% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $6.94 | -71.5% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $5 | $4.2 | -90.5% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $5.66 | -73.4% | May 17, 2022 |
Track every rating change on RKLB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHeadquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets.…
Historical context
All RKLB earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the RKLB recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-13T00:00:14.471520+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T05:10:40.869361+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T05:10:40.866615+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.