Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · RKLB · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Rocket Lab: Record Q1, Larger Backlog, Neutron Still on Track
Rocket Lab’s current evidence supports a growth thesis built on launch demand, Space Systems expansion, defense programs and vertical integration. The thesis is increasingly dependent on executing Neutron on schedule, converting backlog into revenue and managing margin and capital intensity.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis adds record Q1 performance, a backlog above $2.2 billion, a $190 million Neutron multi-launch contract, the Motive acquisition and the GA electric-propulsion thruster launch. Management’s Neutron target remains a first launch by year-end, while the prior analysis had described a Q4 2026 target.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook and provided Q2 revenue guidance of $225 million to $240 million, with GAAP gross margin guidance of 33% to 35% and non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 38% to 40%.
Key takeaways
- Management described record Q1 revenue and a backlog above $2.2 billion, with launch and Space Systems demand both contributing.
- The Neutron program remains targeted for a first launch by year-end, while management highlighted a $190 million multi-launch contract.
- Motive Space Systems, Mynaric, Monarch and other acquisitions are intended to deepen vertical integration and expand Rocket Lab’s European footprint.
- The next proof points are Neutron execution, launch-capacity expansion and the margin effect of government and Space Systems work.
Management priorities
- Deliver the first Neutron launch by year-end and conduct reusability testing on Flight 2.
- Scale Electron and HASTE launch cadence while building toward higher annual Electron capacity.
- Integrate acquired capabilities and ramp GA electric-propulsion thruster production.
- Expand European operations and pursue defense and commercial space demand.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| BTIG | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Citizens Capital Markets | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 18, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Oct 12, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $72.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Brian Gesuale | $80 | $61.96 | +10.8% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $62.54 | +14.9% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $122 | $78.85 | +68.9% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $80.04 | +52.3% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $63.91 | +48.2% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $83 | $76.2 | +14.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $130 | $98.01 | +80.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Jeff Van Rhee | $120 | $98.1 | +66.2% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $135 | $102.39 | +86.9% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| KGI Securities | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $105.05 | +45.4% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $132 | $114.7 | +82.8% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $116.16 | +66.2% | May 12, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $78.58 | +35.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $87.75 | +45.4% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $82.93 | +38.5% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $85 | $68.37 | +17.7% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Anthony Valentini | $69 | $96.3 | -4.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $105 | $90.76 | +45.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $90 | $77.55 | +24.6% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $70.52 | +17.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Needham | Ryan Koontz | $63 | $54.98 | -12.8% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Suji Desilva | $75 | $51.9 | +3.8% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $75 | $51.9 | +3.8% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $67 | +3.8% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $83 | $69.27 | +14.9% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Andres Sheppard | $35 | $42.34 | -51.5% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $31 | $27.95 | -57.1% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $12 | $10.91 | -83.4% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Mike Leschock | $11 | $8.69 | -84.8% | Sep 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $6 | $5.65 | -91.7% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $4.5 | $4.56 | -93.8% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $9 | $3.76 | -87.5% | May 7, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Jason Gursky | $6 | $4.66 | -91.7% | Feb 12, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $8 | $4.92 | -88.9% | Jan 17, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Erik Rasmussen | $10 | $4.3 | -86.2% | Sep 27, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $12 | $5.36 | -83.4% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $10 | $5.63 | -86.2% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Sam Boughedda | $8 | $5.52 | -88.9% | Aug 31, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $5.99 | -79.2% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $6.94 | -79.2% | Aug 15, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $5 | $4.2 | -93.1% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $5.66 | -80.6% | May 17, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHeadquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T15:31:02.333078+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T15:31:02.330364+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.