Comfort Systems USA, Inc. · FIX · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Comfort Systems USA: Strong Growth, Record Backlog, Margin Watchpoints
Comfort Systems USA’s Q3 analysis supports a constructive growth case: strong technology and data-center demand, record backlog, acquisitions, and planned modular expansion provide visible drivers. The main test is whether project maturation and capacity investments can offset mix-related margin pressure and execution risks.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The supplied analysis highlights a record $17.8 billion backlog, two acquisitions expected to add more than $100 million of annual revenue, a $0.10 dividend increase to $1.00 per share, and $200 million of quarterly share repurchases. Management also outlined modular-capacity expansion through 2027.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not specify a numerical guidance change.
Key takeaways
- Revenue grew 54% year over year to $3.8 billion and EPS was $13.91, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
- Backlog reached $17.8 billion, described as the eighth consecutive sequential increase, with bookings weighted toward technology and data-center customers.
- Mechanical and electrical segments delivered double-digit growth, while equipment and materials mix pressured margins.
- Lewis Electrical and Neopod acquisitions are expected to add more than $100 million of annual revenue.
- Management plans to expand modular capacity to approximately 6 million square feet by the end of 2027, with capex at 4%-5% of revenue.
Management priorities
- Expand modular capacity to approximately 6 million square feet by the end of 2027.
- Invest more than $100 million in prefabrication facilities while maintaining capex at 4%-5% of revenue.
- Integrate Lewis Electrical and Neopod.
- Continue share repurchases and dividend growth.
- Focus on labor training and retention.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Sidoti & Co. | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 2, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2017 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 1, 2014 |
| Gilford Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 10, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,154.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $1,875 | $1,464.07 | +62.4% | Oct 20, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Sangita Jain | $2,125 | $1,541.68 | +84.1% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,100 | $1,672.94 | +81.9% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Brophy | $1,910 | $1,730.11 | +65.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,225 | $1,728.2 | +92.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $2,110 | $1,733.6 | +82.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $2,159 | $1,684.94 | +87.0% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $2,125 | $1,838.11 | +84.1% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $2,200 | $1,868.18 | +90.5% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,992 | $1,753.47 | +72.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $2,004 | $1,740.33 | +73.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| GLJ Research | Analyst unavailable | $2,001 | $1,682.15 | +73.3% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,819 | $1,611 | +57.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,611 | $1,408.1 | +39.5% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $1,800 | $1,411 | +55.9% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,310 | $1,162.26 | +13.5% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,196 | $1,121.44 | +3.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $1,200 | $935 | +3.9% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Chan | $1,140 | $993 | -1.3% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,069 | $981.66 | -7.4% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $810 | $973.94 | -29.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Chan | $575 | $479.1 | -50.2% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Joshua Chan | $525 | $313.58 | -54.5% | Nov 19, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationComfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection.…
Historical context
All FIX earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE Bloom Energy Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +36.0% | -8.7% | Bloom Energy Raises Outlook as AI Power Demand Drives Expansion |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -5.9% | -3.4% | Snap-on: C&I strength offsets organic sales pressure in Q3 |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | +1.7% | Honeywell Raises 2026 Outlook as Backlog and Forge Support Growth |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.0% | +7.0% | Lockheed Martin: backlog and guidance rise, with execution risks |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.6% | +3.1% | Norfolk Southern posts strong Q3 as capex outlook rises |
| POOL Pool Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.2% | +14.4% | POOL: Q3 growth held up as freight costs pressured margins |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- DECKFY2027 Q2 · October 22, 2026+13.4% EPS-0.2% move
- OMCFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+2.2% EPS+2.6% move
- SSNCFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+0.6% EPS+2.8% move
- BEFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+36.0% EPS-8.7% move
- ROPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+1.7% EPS+9.7% move
- BPOPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+5.8% EPS-2.8% move
Missed on EPS
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
- HBANPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS0.0% move
- PCGFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-0.8% EPS-1.3% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-23T18:06:41.067107+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-23T01:23:12.835668+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-23T18:40:43.019344+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-23T18:40:43.016578+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.