Comfort Systems USA, Inc. · FIX · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Comfort Systems USA: Strong Growth, Record Backlog, Margin Watchpoints

Comfort Systems USA’s Q3 analysis supports a constructive growth case: strong technology and data-center demand, record backlog, acquisitions, and planned modular expansion provide visible drivers. The main test is whether project maturation and capacity investments can offset mix-related margin pressure and execution risks.

Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials $45.03B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $13.91 Consensus $12.85
EPS surprise +8.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.77B Consensus $3.40B
Revenue surprise +10.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -8.5% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -8.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
FIXSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about FIX FY2026 Q3

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

The supplied analysis highlights a record $17.8 billion backlog, two acquisitions expected to add more than $100 million of annual revenue, a $0.10 dividend increase to $1.00 per share, and $200 million of quarterly share repurchases. Management also outlined modular-capacity expansion through 2027.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not specify a numerical guidance change.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue grew 54% year over year to $3.8 billion and EPS was $13.91, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
  • Backlog reached $17.8 billion, described as the eighth consecutive sequential increase, with bookings weighted toward technology and data-center customers.
  • Mechanical and electrical segments delivered double-digit growth, while equipment and materials mix pressured margins.
  • Lewis Electrical and Neopod acquisitions are expected to add more than $100 million of annual revenue.
  • Management plans to expand modular capacity to approximately 6 million square feet by the end of 2027, with capex at 4%-5% of revenue.

Management priorities

  • Expand modular capacity to approximately 6 million square feet by the end of 2027.
  • Invest more than $100 million in prefabrication facilities while maintaining capex at 4%-5% of revenue.
  • Integrate Lewis Electrical and Neopod.
  • Continue share repurchases and dividend growth.
  • Focus on labor training and retention.

Follow FIX with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
FIX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.20 Q4 '23 actual $2.55, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.01 Q1 '24 actual $2.69, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3.14 Q2 '24 actual $3.74, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3.97 Q3 '24 actual $4.09, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.84 Q2 '25 actual $6.53, beat Q3 '25 estimate $6.29 Q3 '25 actual $8.25, beat Q4 '25 estimate $6.75 Q4 '25 actual $9.37, beat Q1 '26 estimate $6.81 Q1 '26 actual $10.51, beat Q2 '26 estimate $10.45 Q2 '26 actual $12.53, beat Q3 '26 estimate $12.85 Q3 '26 actual $13.91, beat Q4 '26 estimate $13.15 Q1 '27 estimate $12.42 Q2 '27 estimate $14.46 Q3 '27 estimate $15.03
Show less

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy8 ratings
Bullish562.5%
Neutral337.5%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$1,160.86Current
$1,140Low
$1,908Average
$2,200High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 15, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJul 27, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainFeb 23, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainJan 26, 2026
Sidoti & Co. Neutral NeutralMaintainJun 2, 2020
Show 3 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,160.86. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$1,875$1,464.07 +61.5%Oct 20, 2026
KeyBancSangita Jain$2,125$1,541.68 +83.1%Oct 15, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$2,100$1,672.94 +80.9%Aug 20, 2026
Stifel NicolausBrian Brophy$1,910$1,730.11 +64.5%Jul 27, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$2,225$1,728.2 +91.7%Jul 27, 2026
See 18 more

Track every rating change on FIX the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection.…

Historical context

All FIX earnings

Industrials peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Get the FIX recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-23T18:06:41.067107+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-23T01:23:12.835668+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-23T18:40:43.019344+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-23T18:40:43.016578+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.