Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold30 ratings
Bullish516.7%
Neutral2066.7%
Bearish516.6%
Paychex, Inc. · PAYX · FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026
Paychex maintains FY27 outlook as PEO and AI momentum strengthen
Paychex's current-quarter evidence supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: PEO retention, advisory demand, broker referrals and AI-enabled automation are supporting growth, while adoption, macro sensitivity and PEO mix remain important tests.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$37.17B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.34
Consensus $1.32
EPS surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.63B
Consensus $1.63B
Revenue surprise
+0.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-8.8%
Event window
SPY move
-0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.3%
Up to 20 sessions
PAYXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PAYX FY2027 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PAYX fall 8.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2027 Q1?What changed in PAYX's guidance and outlook in FY2027 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for PAYX after FY2027 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added evidence of stronger PEO momentum, including record retention and high single-digit worksite employee growth, alongside continued AI product expansion and broker-channel traction. Overall fiscal 2027 guidance was unchanged, with a higher PEO growth range noted in the analysis.
Guidance delta
Overall fiscal 2027 guidance was maintained, while the PEO and Insurance Solutions growth outlook was raised.
Key takeaways
- Revenue and operating income grew double-digit, led by PEO and advisory solutions.
- Management cited record PEO retention and high single-digit worksite employee growth.
- WISE, WISE Hire, Perks and broker partnerships remain central to product and go-to-market expansion.
Management priorities
- Scale WISE across Paychex, Paycor and SurePayroll.
- Launch and expand WISE Hire and SixFifty AI-enabled products.
- Deepen Microsoft and partner-ecosystem integration, while growing Perks and broker partnerships.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$103.21Current
$98Low
$122.21Average
$145High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Sep 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Mar 31, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 7, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2021 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 21, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2017 |
| Bernstein | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 11, 2017 |
| Compass Point | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 17, 2015 |
| First Analysis | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $103.21. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Jason Kupferberg | $111 | $116.93 | +7.5% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $115 | $111.96 | +11.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $107 | $112.76 | +3.7% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $99.81 | +5.6% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $98.84 | -5.0% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $100.28 | +6.6% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $107 | $91.68 | +3.7% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Daniel Jester | $103 | $92 | -0.2% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $98 | $106.19 | -5.0% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $112.28 | +19.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $112.28 | +6.6% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $126 | $115.22 | +22.1% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $112.45 | +17.2% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $112.45 | +12.4% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $112.06 | +14.3% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $125 | $113.31 | +21.1% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $127.54 | +24.0% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Stephens | Charles Nabhan | $135 | $124.37 | +30.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $126.76 | +27.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $126.76 | +35.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $126.76 | +26.0% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $140 | $131.62 | +35.6% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $137.94 | +35.6% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $165 | $150.62 | +59.9% | Jun 24, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $151.83 | +51.1% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $142 | $141.65 | +37.6% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $132 | $133.26 | +27.9% | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $135 | $118.91 | +30.8% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $122 | $117.39 | +18.2% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mark Marcon | $124 | $117.66 | +20.1% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $130 | $117.39 | +26.0% | Jun 26, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $116 | $120.21 | +12.4% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $130 | $121.5 | +26.0% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $125 | $112.72 | +21.1% | Sep 27, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $130 | $121.37 | +26.0% | Sep 5, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $116.01 | +15.3% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $116.01 | +21.1% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $116.01 | +11.4% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Samad Samana | $120 | $112.18 | +16.3% | Dec 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Kevin Mcveigh | $140 | $113.87 | +35.6% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Peter Christiansen | $145 | $136.84 | +40.5% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $125 | $124.55 | +21.1% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Bryan Bergin | $145 | $128.28 | +40.5% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El Assal | $140 | $133.45 | +35.6% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Kevin Mcveigh | $165 | $133.45 | +59.9% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $118 | $133.45 | +14.3% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| MoffettNathanson | Eugene Simuni | $145 | $133.45 | +40.5% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $140 | $132.62 | +35.6% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $118 | $113.86 | +14.3% | Oct 1, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $118 | $105.1 | +14.3% | Jun 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PAYX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFounded in 1971 and headquartered in Rochester, New York, Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions. The company primarily serves small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the United States, Europe, and India, addressing their needs in human resources, payroll administration, employee benefits, and insurance. Its diverse service portfolio includes: Payroll Management: Encompassing core payroll processing, payroll tax administration, employee payment facilitation, and ensuring compliance with regulations like new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. Human Resources Solutions: Providing support for employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and even the availability of professionally trained on-site HR representatives.…
Historical context
All PAYX earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | -3.4% | Cintas raises FY2027 guidance as Q1 growth broadens |
| FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +9.5% | Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.8% | +2.1% | Donaldson posts record FY26 and targets further growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
Get the PAYX recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-09-24T14:16:35.863188+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-24T01:23:14.997160+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T14:20:59.964395+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T14:20:59.961610+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.