Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold30 ratings
Bullish516.7%
Neutral2170.0%
Bearish413.3%
Paychex, Inc. · PAYX · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2025
Paychex pairs strong growth with AI rollout and Paycor synergies
The current analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: Paychex is combining integration-led growth, cross-selling, and AI investment, but the durability of organic demand, margins, and synergies remains to be demonstrated.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$35.32B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.26
Consensus $1.23
EPS surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.56B
Consensus $1.55B
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.5%
Up to 20 sessions
PAYXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PAYX FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PAYX fall 1.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in PAYX's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for PAYX after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Since the prior quarter, the emphasis shifted from the initial Paycor integration and product launches to broader AI deployment, a reported $100 million cost-synergy contribution, expected revenue synergies, and a more explicit acknowledgment of softer revenue per client. Guidance remained supportive, with earnings expectations raised while revenue stayed at the low end of the prior range.
Guidance delta
Full-year guidance was reaffirmed, with adjusted EPS growth raised to 10–11%; revenue guidance remained at the low end of the prior range.
Key takeaways
- Management described 18% year-over-year revenue growth and 21% adjusted operating-income growth in fiscal Q2.
- Paycor integration remains central, with cost synergies ahead of schedule and additional revenue synergies expected.
- AI initiatives span product innovation, compliance tools, and internal productivity, while client spending remains cost-conscious.
- The prior quarter established a similar pattern: strong integration-led growth, raised earnings guidance, and emphasis on cross-selling.
Management priorities
- Scale AI capabilities across Paychex Flex, SurePayroll, and Paycor.
- Commercialize the AI knowledge mesh and GenAI compliance tools.
- Realize Paycor cost and revenue synergies and expand Partner Plus broker cross-selling.
- Deploy the AI-powered sales engine across the sales organization.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$99.3Previous close
$98Low
$122.14Average
$145High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Sep 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Sep 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Mar 31, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 7, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2021 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 21, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 21, 2017 |
| Bernstein | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 11, 2017 |
| Compass Point | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 17, 2015 |
| First Analysis | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $99.3. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert W. Baird | Mark Marcon | $110 | $101.37 | +10.8% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $104.49 | +12.8% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Daniel Jester | $113 | $104.49 | +13.8% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Jason Kupferberg | $111 | $116.93 | +11.8% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $115 | $111.96 | +15.8% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $107 | $112.76 | +7.8% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $99.81 | +9.8% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $98.84 | -1.3% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $100.28 | +10.8% | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $107 | $91.68 | +7.8% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Daniel Jester | $103 | $92 | +3.7% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $98 | $106.19 | -1.3% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $112.28 | +23.9% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $112.28 | +10.8% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $126 | $115.22 | +26.9% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $112.45 | +21.9% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $116 | $112.45 | +16.8% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $118 | $112.06 | +18.8% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $125 | $113.31 | +25.9% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $127.54 | +28.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Stephens | Charles Nabhan | $135 | $124.37 | +36.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $126.76 | +32.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $126.76 | +41.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $126.76 | +30.9% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $140 | $131.62 | +41.0% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $137.94 | +41.0% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $165 | $150.62 | +66.2% | Jun 24, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $151.83 | +57.1% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| UBS | Kevin McVeigh | $142 | $141.65 | +43.0% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $132 | $133.26 | +32.9% | Sep 22, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $135 | $118.91 | +36.0% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $122 | $117.39 | +22.9% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Mark Marcon | $124 | $117.66 | +24.9% | Jun 27, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $130 | $117.39 | +30.9% | Jun 26, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $116 | $120.21 | +16.8% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $130 | $121.5 | +30.9% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | James Faucette | $125 | $112.72 | +25.9% | Sep 27, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Ashish Sabadra | $130 | $121.37 | +30.9% | Sep 5, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $116.01 | +19.8% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $116.01 | +25.9% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $116.01 | +15.8% | Dec 23, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Samad Samana | $120 | $112.18 | +20.8% | Dec 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Kevin Mcveigh | $140 | $113.87 | +41.0% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Peter Christiansen | $145 | $136.84 | +46.0% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jason Kupferberg | $125 | $124.55 | +25.9% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Bryan Bergin | $145 | $128.28 | +46.0% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El Assal | $140 | $133.45 | +41.0% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Kevin Mcveigh | $165 | $133.45 | +66.2% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | David Togut | $118 | $133.45 | +18.8% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| MoffettNathanson | Eugene Simuni | $145 | $133.45 | +46.0% | Dec 23, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Grossman | $140 | $132.62 | +41.0% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $118 | $113.86 | +18.8% | Oct 1, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $118 | $105.1 | +18.8% | Jun 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PAYX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFounded in 1971 and headquartered in Rochester, New York, Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions. The company primarily serves small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the United States, Europe, and India, addressing their needs in human resources, payroll administration, employee benefits, and insurance. Its diverse service portfolio includes: Payroll Management: Encompassing core payroll processing, payroll tax administration, employee payment facilitation, and ensuring compliance with regulations like new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. Human Resources Solutions: Providing support for employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and even the availability of professionally trained on-site HR representatives.…
Historical context
All PAYX earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the PAYX recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T11:51:01.339254+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T11:51:01.336394+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.