Palo Alto Networks, Inc. · PANW · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025

Palo Alto Networks raises FY26 outlook as platformization accelerates

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient demand, platformization, and AI-security expansion strengthened Palo Alto Networks' growth trajectory, while acquisition integration, competition, and billing-transition execution remain important tests.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $328.64B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.95 Consensus $0.89
EPS surprise +7.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.54B Consensus $2.50B
Revenue surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +3.1% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +3.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +11.9% Up to 20 sessions
PANWSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management reported a stronger Q4 with next-generation security ARR at $5.58 billion, 120% net retention among platform customers, and raised FY26 guidance. The strategic emphasis also broadened through the proposed CyberArk acquisition and the launch of Prisma AIRS.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY26 guidance, targeting revenue of $10.47-$10.525 billion, next-generation security ARR of $7.0-$7.1 billion, and a 38%-39% free-cash-flow margin.

Key takeaways

  • Management described a record Q4 with a revenue run rate above $10 billion and record bookings.
  • Next-generation security ARR grew 32% to $5.58 billion, led by software firewalls, SASE, and XSIAM.
  • Platform customers reached 120% net retention, while free-cash-flow margin was 38%.
  • Prisma AIRS and other AI-security offerings expand the product opportunity, but competition and execution remain material variables.

Management priorities

  • Expand platformization across software firewalls, SASE, XSIAM, and Cortex Cloud
  • Roll out Prisma AIRS and AI access solutions with integrated data-loss-prevention controls
  • Add application-security posture management and exposure-management modules
  • Integrate the proposed CyberArk acquisition and broaden identity and privileged-access capabilities
  • Shift more of the business to annual billing to improve cash-flow visibility

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PANW REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $2B Q2 '24 actual $2B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2B Q3 '24 actual $2B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $2B Q4 '24 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '26 actual $2B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q3 '26 actual $3B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 actual $3B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3B Q2 '27 estimate $3B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy87 ratings
Bullish6372.4%
Neutral2225.3%
Bearish22.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$403.24Current
$146.67Low
$322.5Average
$496High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform OutperformDowngradeSep 17, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 83 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $403.24. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Cowen & Co.Analyst unavailable$440$396.25 +9.1%Oct 2, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$425$374.74 +5.4%Sep 28, 2026
Morgan StanleyMeta Marshall$410$363.58 +1.7%Sep 21, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$351$375.65 -13.0%Sep 17, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$390$328.48 -3.3%Sep 2, 2026
See 240 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls. It also offers Panorama, a sophisticated security management platform designed for centralized control of these firewall deployments, whether they are physical appliances, virtual instances, or situated in public or private cloud environments. Additionally, the firm provides virtual system upgrades to enhance the capacity of its physical firewall units. Complementing its core products, Palo Alto Networks delivers an extensive range of subscription services. These encompass robust threat prevention, protection against malware and advanced persistent threats, URL filtering, and security for both laptop and mobile devices. Further specialized subscriptions include DNS security, Internet of Things (IoT) security, SaaS security (via API and inline methods), threat intelligence, and data loss prevention.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T15:00:45.086624+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T15:00:45.084146+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.