Palo Alto Networks, Inc. · PANW · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026

PANW: AI demand and platformization support FY27 growth outlook

The supplied analysis supports the view that resilient demand—especially for AI-related security, SASE, platformization, and observability—can sustain growth over the next year. The case is tempered by maintained rather than raised guidance, acquisition-integration execution, hardware-cost pressure, and uncertainty around the contribution from a large LLM migration.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $296.32B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.02 Consensus $0.98
EPS surprise +4.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.41B Consensus $3.35B
Revenue surprise +1.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -9.3% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -9.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +10.7% Up to 20 sessions
PANWSPY benchmark

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What changed

The current analysis describes a record FY26 close, with RPO above $21 billion and NGS ARR growth of 63%, while emphasizing the integration of CyberArk, Chronosphere, Embrace, and Console. Management maintained FY27 guidance and added focus on Modern PAM, AI-first security, and observability scaling.

Guidance delta

Management maintained FY27 guidance, with 23–24% revenue growth, 22–23% NGS ARR growth, and a 29.5% operating margin in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • FY26 RPO topped $21 billion and NGS ARR grew 63%, with nearly $1 billion of net new NGS ARR added in Q4.
  • Platformization is supporting cross-sell across network security, Cortex, and Idira, with net revenue retention above 120%.
  • CyberArk, Chronosphere, Embrace, and Console are integrating ahead of schedule and contributing to ARR growth.
  • Management identified AI-driven security demand, SASE, next-generation firewalls, and observability workloads as growth drivers.
  • The outlook remains exposed to acquisition execution, hardware-cost pressure, and changing AI model paradigms.

Management priorities

  • Reach more than 4,000 platformizations by FY2030 toward the $20 billion NGS ARR goal.
  • Expand Modern PAM and Idira identity-security capabilities.
  • Scale Chronosphere and extend Embrace for synthetic monitoring.
  • Continue developing AI-first security offerings, including the AI gateway and Frontier AI Defense Service.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PANW EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $1.30 Q2 '24 actual $1.46, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.27 Q3 '24 actual $1.32, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.41 Q4 '24 actual $1.51, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.89 Q4 '25 actual $0.95, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.89 Q1 '26 actual $0.93, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.94 Q2 '26 actual $1.03, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.79 Q3 '26 actual $0.85, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.98 Q4 '26 actual $1.02, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.97 Q2 '27 estimate $1.01
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy87 ratings
Bullish6372.4%
Neutral2225.3%
Bearish22.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$401.58Current
$146.67Low
$322.5Average
$496High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform OutperformDowngradeSep 17, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 83 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $401.58. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Cowen & Co.Analyst unavailable$440$396.25 +9.6%Oct 2, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$425$374.74 +5.8%Sep 28, 2026
Morgan StanleyMeta Marshall$410$363.58 +2.1%Sep 21, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$351$375.65 -12.6%Sep 17, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$390$328.48 -2.9%Sep 2, 2026
See 240 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls. It also offers Panorama, a sophisticated security management platform designed for centralized control of these firewall deployments, whether they are physical appliances, virtual instances, or situated in public or private cloud environments. Additionally, the firm provides virtual system upgrades to enhance the capacity of its physical firewall units. Complementing its core products, Palo Alto Networks delivers an extensive range of subscription services. These encompass robust threat prevention, protection against malware and advanced persistent threats, URL filtering, and security for both laptop and mobile devices. Further specialized subscriptions include DNS security, Internet of Things (IoT) security, SaaS security (via API and inline methods), threat intelligence, and data loss prevention.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-09-02T04:21:24.617013+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-21T01:23:13.071796+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T01:50:49.677452+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T01:50:49.674665+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.