Palo Alto Networks, Inc. · PANW · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2025

Palo Alto Networks: AI-led growth, platformization, and execution risks

The analysis supports a constructive operating thesis for Palo Alto Networks: AI-related demand, platformization, and cloud security adoption are expanding the growth opportunity. That thesis is conditional on sustained XSIAM and AI ARR momentum, successful platform conversion, and manageable tariff, supply-chain, and cash-flow timing risks.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $330.54B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.77
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $2.28B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -6.8% Event window
SPY move -1.7% Same window
Abnormal move -5.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +9.9% Up to 20 sessions
PANWSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, NGS ARR advanced beyond $5 billion and platform deals reached 1,250 customers. The current analysis also emphasizes XSIAM's more than 200% year-over-year ARR growth, Prisma Access Browser adoption, the planned Protect.ai acquisition, and maintained rather than raised guidance.

Guidance delta

Maintained: the analysis says FY25 revenue guidance remained $9.17–$9.19 billion and adjusted free-cash-flow margin guidance remained 37.5%–38%.

Key takeaways

  • NGS ARR exceeded $5 billion, up 34% year over year, while XSIAM ARR grew more than 200% year over year.
  • Platformization expanded to 1,250 customers, with more than 70% of future NGS ARR expected from platform customers.
  • SASE ARR grew 36% year over year, and Prisma Access Browser represented one-third of Prisma Access seats sold.
  • The analysis identifies AI security, platform consolidation, and cloud-delivered products as growth drivers, but leaves product-mix and AI-growth durability questions unresolved.

Management priorities

  • Expand XSIAM, Cortex Cloud, advanced email security, and exposure management.
  • Roll out Prisma AIRS and future agentic-AI security offerings.
  • Complete the Protect.ai acquisition and continue investment across network, cloud, and security operations.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PANW EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $1.30 Q2 '24 actual $1.46, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.27 Q3 '24 actual $1.32, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.41 Q4 '24 actual $1.51, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.89 Q4 '25 actual $0.95, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.89 Q1 '26 actual $0.93, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.94 Q2 '26 actual $1.03, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.79 Q3 '26 actual $0.85, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.98 Q4 '26 actual $1.02, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.97 Q2 '27 estimate $1.01
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy87 ratings
Bullish6372.4%
Neutral2225.3%
Bearish22.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$398.5Current
$146.67Low
$322.5Average
$496High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 2, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 28, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform OutperformDowngradeSep 17, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Show 83 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $398.5. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Cowen & Co.Analyst unavailable$440$396.25 +10.4%Oct 2, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$425$374.74 +6.6%Sep 28, 2026
Morgan StanleyMeta Marshall$410$363.58 +2.9%Sep 21, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$351$375.65 -11.9%Sep 17, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$390$328.48 -2.1%Sep 2, 2026
See 240 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a global leader in providing advanced cybersecurity solutions. The company's core product line includes both hardware and software-based firewalls. It also offers Panorama, a sophisticated security management platform designed for centralized control of these firewall deployments, whether they are physical appliances, virtual instances, or situated in public or private cloud environments. Additionally, the firm provides virtual system upgrades to enhance the capacity of its physical firewall units. Complementing its core products, Palo Alto Networks delivers an extensive range of subscription services. These encompass robust threat prevention, protection against malware and advanced persistent threats, URL filtering, and security for both laptop and mobile devices. Further specialized subscriptions include DNS security, Internet of Things (IoT) security, SaaS security (via API and inline methods), threat intelligence, and data loss prevention.…

Historical context

All PANW earnings

Technology peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-14T22:51:07.441298+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T05:10:46.563941+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T05:10:46.561239+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.