Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy42 ratings
Bullish2457.1%
Neutral1740.5%
Bearish12.4%
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. · PAA · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
PAA Holds EBITDA Guidance as Capex and Pipeline Expansion Rise
Q2 supports a constructive but execution-dependent view: balance-sheet improvement and producer activity provide support, while higher capex and expansion execution need to translate into returns without weakening cash generation.
Why did PAA fall 3.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?
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Reported Before market openNASDAQEnergy
$17.90B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.41
Consensus $0.38
EPS surprise
+7.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$17.69B
Consensus $12.72B
Revenue surprise
+39.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+12.7%
Up to 20 sessions
PAASPY benchmark
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Why did PAA fall 3.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in PAA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for PAA after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, PAA maintained FY2026 EBITDA guidance rather than raising it, completed the Canadian NGL sale, increased growth capex, and fast-tracked a 75,000 bpd Cactus III expansion. Leverage improved to 3.3x, while management continued to emphasize Permian and Canadian growth and cost efficiencies.
Guidance delta
FY2026 EBITDA guidance was maintained at $2.88 billion; growth capex increased to $400–$450 million.
Key takeaways
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA kept PAA on track for its $2.88 billion FY2026 guidance.
- The completed Canadian NGL sale reduced pro forma leverage to 3.3x.
- Growth capex rose to $400–$450 million for Permian and Canadian gathering projects.
- Management fast-tracked a 75,000 bpd Cactus III expansion, taking planned capacity to 725,000 bpd.
- The company targets $1.75 billion of 2026 free cash flow and continued cost efficiencies.
Management priorities
- Complete Cactus III additional capacity and assess further phases.
- Expand Permian gathering and Canadian gathering systems.
- Deliver $50 million of cost efficiencies in 2026 and another $50 million in 2027.
- Pursue opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions while retaining financial flexibility.
- Return cash to shareholders while maintaining capital discipline.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$23.79Current
$11Low
$21.63Average
$31High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 12, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Nov 15, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 3, 2020 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2020 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 24, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2018 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 18, 2017 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 21, 2015 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 6, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 6, 2015 |
| Clarksons Platou | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2013 |
| Clarkson Capital Markets | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2013 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2013 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Aug 15, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 17, 2012 |
| Morgan Keegan | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 10, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $23.79. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $30 | $26.41 | +26.1% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.25 | +17.7% | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Mark Lear | $28 | $25.14 | +17.7% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $31 | $24.5 | +30.3% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $27 | $24.42 | +13.5% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.27 | +17.7% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $27 | $25.37 | +13.5% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $30 | $25.37 | +26.1% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $24 | $25.37 | +0.9% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $25.85 | +13.5% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $26 | $24.16 | +9.3% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $26 | $23.9 | +9.3% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $23 | $24.31 | -3.3% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $23.35 | -3.3% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $27 | $22.6 | +13.5% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.91 | +0.9% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $23.86 | +5.1% | May 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.99 | +0.9% | May 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.54 | +0.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $21 | $21.92 | -11.7% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $25 | $21.97 | +5.1% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $19.24 | -3.3% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $19.14 | -3.3% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $21 | $17.32 | -11.7% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $16.82 | -7.5% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $16.71 | -28.5% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $17.42 | -15.9% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jeremy Tonet | $20 | $17.87 | -15.9% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $25 | $18.65 | +5.1% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $22 | $18.41 | -7.5% | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $23 | $16.94 | -3.3% | May 9, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $19 | -7.5% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Keith Stanley | $22 | $18.88 | -7.5% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $18 | $17.47 | -24.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $22 | $18.03 | -7.5% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $18 | $17.45 | -24.3% | May 14, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $16 | $17.98 | -32.7% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $14.5 | $12.62 | -39.1% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $11.7 | -41.2% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $12.19 | -36.9% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $16 | $11.66 | -32.7% | Aug 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Spiro Dounis | $14 | $10.24 | -41.2% | May 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $16 | $10.39 | -32.7% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $10.54 | -36.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.32 | -45.4% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Tristan Richardson | $13 | $10.47 | -45.4% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Timm Schneider | $13 | $10.12 | -45.4% | Jul 13, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Linda Ezergailis | $13.5 | $10.51 | -43.3% | Jul 6, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Lapides | $11 | $8.59 | -53.8% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PAA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPlains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the pipeline transportation, terminalling, storage, and gathering of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Crude Oil and NGL. The Crude Oil segment offers gathering and transporting crude oil through pipelines, trucks, and on barges or railcars. This segment provides terminalling, storage, and other related services, as well as merchant activities. The NGL segment is involved in natural gas processing and NGL fractionation, storage, transportation, and terminaling. This segment also includes ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, and natural gasoline derived from natural gas production and processing activities, as well as crude oil refining processes. Its NGL components are used for various applications, such as heating, engine, and industrial fuels.The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Plains GP Holdings, L.P.
Historical context
All PAA earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP ConocoPhillips | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +7.2% | -1.1% | COP beats Q3 expectations as management reiterates its 2029 cash-flow target |
| TRP TC Energy Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.7% | -0.0% | TC Energy Raises EBITDA Outlook as Q3 Growth Accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
- STEFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026+9.7% EPS+2.5% move
- IRMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+4.6% EPS-11.1% move
- AFRMFY2027 Q1 · November 5, 2026+23.8% EPS+1.9% move
Missed on EPS
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
- UHALFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026-15.4% EPS-3.2% move
- LAMRFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-3.6% EPS-0.8% move
- CMIFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-6.0% EPS-4.9% move
Get the PAA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-07T21:16:40.734899+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-12T01:23:12.567806+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T22:50:48.310599+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T22:50:48.307756+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.