Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy42 ratings
Bullish2457.1%
Neutral1740.5%
Bearish12.4%
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. · PAA · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
PAA shifts to crude focus as Cactus III synergies ramp
PAA's transition to a pure-play crude midstream business is supported by stated Cactus III synergies, a $100 million cost-savings target, and maintained 2026 EBITDA guidance. The thesis depends on completing the NGL divestiture, integrating assets, and converting planned savings and capacity opportunities into durable cash flow.
Reported Before market openNASDAQEnergy
$16.72B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.40
Consensus $0.47
EPS surprise
-14.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.56B
Consensus $12.85B
Revenue surprise
-17.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.9%
Event window
SPY move
+1.9%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.6%
Up to 20 sessions
PAASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PAA FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PAA fall 2.9% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in PAA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PAA after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management highlighted that Cactus III synergies were already on run rate in Q4, added the Wild Horse Terminal acquisition, and provided 2026 guidance of $2.75 billion adjusted EBITDA. The company also raised the quarterly distribution while lowering its coverage-ratio target to 150%.
Guidance delta
Maintained: 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $2.75 billion, with management describing 13% crude-segment growth.
Key takeaways
- Management said PAA is transitioning to a pure-play crude midstream model after the NGL divestiture.
- Cactus III integration synergies were described as $50 million on run rate in Q4.
- The company outlined a $100 million cost-savings target through 2027.
- Management raised the quarterly distribution to $1.67 per unit and lowered the coverage-ratio target to 150%.
- The 2026 plan includes approximately $350 million of growth capex and $165 million of maintenance capex.
Management priorities
- Complete the NGL divestiture and secure remaining Canadian approval.
- Integrate Cactus III and capture the identified synergies.
- Deliver the $100 million cost-savings target by 2027.
- Expand storage through Wild Horse Terminal and pursue selective bolt-on acquisitions.
- Allocate capital while supporting distribution growth and crude-platform expansion.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$23.75Current
$11Low
$20.68Average
$30High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 1, 2022 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 12, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Nov 15, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 3, 2020 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2020 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 20, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 24, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2018 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 18, 2017 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 21, 2015 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2015 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 6, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 6, 2015 |
| Clarksons Platou | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2013 |
| Clarkson Capital Markets | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2013 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 25, 2013 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Aug 15, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 17, 2012 |
| Morgan Keegan | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 10, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $23.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $25.27 | +17.9% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $27 | $25.37 | +13.7% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $30 | $25.37 | +26.3% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $24 | $25.37 | +1.1% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $25.85 | +13.7% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $26 | $24.16 | +9.5% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $26 | $23.9 | +9.5% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $23 | $24.31 | -3.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $23.35 | -3.2% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $27 | $22.6 | +13.7% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.91 | +1.1% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $23.86 | +5.3% | May 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.99 | +1.1% | May 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.54 | +1.1% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $21 | $21.92 | -11.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $25 | $21.97 | +5.3% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $19.24 | -3.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $19.14 | -3.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $21 | $17.32 | -11.6% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $16.82 | -7.4% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $16.71 | -28.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $17.42 | -15.8% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jeremy Tonet | $20 | $17.87 | -15.8% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $25 | $18.65 | +5.3% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $22 | $18.41 | -7.4% | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $23 | $16.94 | -3.2% | May 9, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $19 | -7.4% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Keith Stanley | $22 | $18.88 | -7.4% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $18 | $17.47 | -24.2% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $22 | $18.03 | -7.4% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $18 | $17.45 | -24.2% | May 14, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $16 | $17.98 | -32.6% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $14.5 | $12.62 | -38.9% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $11.7 | -41.1% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $12.19 | -36.8% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $16 | $11.66 | -32.6% | Aug 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Spiro Dounis | $14 | $10.24 | -41.1% | May 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $16 | $10.39 | -32.6% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $10.54 | -36.8% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.32 | -45.3% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Tristan Richardson | $13 | $10.47 | -45.3% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Timm Schneider | $13 | $10.12 | -45.3% | Jul 13, 2021 |
| TD Securities | Linda Ezergailis | $13.5 | $10.51 | -43.2% | Jul 6, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Lapides | $11 | $8.59 | -53.7% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PAA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPlains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the pipeline transportation, terminalling, storage, and gathering of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Crude Oil and NGL. The Crude Oil segment offers gathering and transporting crude oil through pipelines, trucks, and on barges or railcars. This segment provides terminalling, storage, and other related services, as well as merchant activities. The NGL segment is involved in natural gas processing and NGL fractionation, storage, transportation, and terminaling. This segment also includes ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, and natural gasoline derived from natural gas production and processing activities, as well as crude oil refining processes. Its NGL components are used for various applications, such as heating, engine, and industrial fuels.The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Plains GP Holdings, L.P.
Historical context
All PAA earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T00:06:08.075628+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T00:06:08.072390+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.