NIKE, Inc. · NKE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2025

Nike: Running momentum offsets China and margin pressures

Nike's latest analysis supports a mixed recovery case: running growth, North America wholesale momentum, and product launches are constructive, but tariff-driven margin pressure, Greater China weakness, and no expected Nike Direct growth this year leave the turnaround unproven.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $50.12B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.49 Consensus $0.27
EPS surprise +80.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $11.72B Consensus $10.99B
Revenue surprise +6.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +6.4% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +6.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -11.9% Up to 20 sessions
NKESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis adds evidence of more than 20% running growth, 4% North America revenue growth, and 11% North America wholesale growth, while Greater China revenue declined 10%. It also identifies a larger tariff burden and continued margin pressure from wholesale discounts.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management expects modest wholesale growth for FY2026 and does not expect Nike Direct to return to growth this year.

Key takeaways

  • Running grew more than 20% year over year, supporting the sport-offense strategy.
  • North America revenue rose 4%, with wholesale up 11%.
  • Greater China revenue fell 10%, while inventory declined 11%.
  • Tariffs and higher wholesale discounts continue to pressure gross margins.

Management priorities

  • Accelerate product innovation through the sport-offense organization.
  • Launch and scale new running, football, outdoor, and apparel products.
  • Expand sport-focused store concepts in China.
  • Continue expanding Nike Direct through Amazon.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NKE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $0.83 Q4 '24 actual $1.01, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.52 Q1 '25 actual $0.70, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.13 Q4 '25 actual $0.14, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.27 Q1 '26 actual $0.49, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.37 Q2 '26 actual $0.53, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q3 '26 actual $0.35, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.11 Q4 '26 actual $0.72, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.43 Q1 '27 actual $0.48, beat Q2 '27 estimate $0.48 Q3 '27 estimate $0.39 Q4 '27 estimate $0.24 Q1 '28 estimate $0.51
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold71 ratings
Bullish3346.5%
Neutral3042.2%
Bearish811.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$33.87Current
$19Low
$81.88Average
$192High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 2, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainOct 2, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 2, 2026
StoneX Hold HoldMaintainOct 2, 2026
Show 67 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $33.87. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSJay Sole$34$33.1 +0.4%Oct 2, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$28$33.22 -17.3%Oct 2, 2026
Morgan StanleyAlex Straton$27$33.21 -20.3%Oct 2, 2026
BernsteinNick Anderson$45$35.15 +32.9%Oct 2, 2026
Robert W. BairdJonathan Komp$36$35.15 +6.3%Oct 2, 2026
See 199 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T07:16:10.112562+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T07:16:10.110042+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.