NIKE, Inc. · NKE · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025

Nike: Sport-led recovery gains traction, but tariffs and inventory weigh

The evidence is mixed but improving: management described early benefits from sport-led product launches, organizational changes, and a stronger wholesale order book, while the earnings profile still faces tariff, inventory, classic-footwear, digital-traffic, and Greater China headwinds. The current analysis supports a cautious recovery thesis rather than a full turnaround.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $50.85B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.14 Consensus $0.13
EPS surprise +7.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $11.10B Consensus $10.73B
Revenue surprise +3.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +15.2% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +14.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 8.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +10.0% Up to 20 sessions
NKESPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NKE FY2025 Q4

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management's tone is more confident and the analysis adds early evidence of improving wholesale order-book conditions, sport-offense execution, and product momentum. The focus remains on inventory cleanup and shifting the mix toward performance and premium full-price channels, while tariff costs and classic-franchise weakness remain unresolved.

Guidance delta

Management's outlook remains maintained. Relative to the prior quarter's severe near-term pressure, the current analysis points to a mid-single-digit Q1 revenue decline, moderating margin pressure in H2, and a gradual return toward double-digit operating margins.

Key takeaways

  • Management said sport-offense reorganization and Win Now actions are improving the wholesale order book and product momentum.
  • Running and training, led by Vomero 18, are providing an offset to weakness in classic footwear franchises.
  • Inventory cleanup is progressing, but excess inventory, discounting, tariffs, and Greater China weakness remain material risks.
  • The planned Amazon brand store and upgraded Greater China retail concepts broaden distribution and support the premium-channel strategy.

Management priorities

  • Roll out sport-offense cross-functional teams.
  • Launch next-generation products including the Vomero Plus, Vomero Premium, and Ava Rover family.
  • Grow Nike Direct as a premium digital and physical destination.
  • Pilot new monobrand retail concepts and upgraded stores in Greater China.
  • Deepen the Amazon partnership through a dedicated Nike brand store.

Follow NKE with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NKE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $0.83 Q4 '24 actual $1.01, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.52 Q1 '25 actual $0.70, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.13 Q4 '25 actual $0.14, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.27 Q1 '26 actual $0.49, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.37 Q2 '26 actual $0.53, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q3 '26 actual $0.35, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.11 Q4 '26 actual $0.72, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.43 Q1 '27 actual $0.48, beat Q2 '27 estimate $0.39 Q3 '27 estimate $0.26 Q4 '27 estimate $0.16 Q1 '28 estimate $0.48
Show 2 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold71 ratings
Bullish3346.5%
Neutral3042.2%
Bearish811.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$34.36Current
$19Low
$80.74Average
$192High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 2, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainOct 2, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 2, 2026
Show 67 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $34.36. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$27.5$33.96 -20.0%Oct 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$37$33.87 +7.7%Oct 5, 2026
UBSJay Sole$34$33.1 -1.0%Oct 2, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$28$33.22 -18.5%Oct 2, 2026
Morgan StanleyAlex Straton$27$33.21 -21.4%Oct 2, 2026
See 201 more

Track every rating change on NKE the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers.…

Historical context

All NKE earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Get the NKE recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T01:40:43.372353+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T01:40:43.369151+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.