NIKE, Inc. · NKE · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2025

Nike shifts toward performance growth as inventory pressure persists

Nike’s Q3 analysis supports a mixed transition thesis: performance innovation and a full-price marketplace reset provide potential recovery levers, but inventory, classic-franchise weakness, and macro pressures continue to weigh on the near-term trajectory.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $52.31B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.28
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $11.01B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -5.5% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -5.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -17.4% Up to 20 sessions
NKESPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NKE FY2025 Q3

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shows performance footwear helping offset some declines, while management continued to emphasize inventory reduction, lower promotion, marketplace cleanup, and a shift toward performance and full-price selling. The near-term outlook remained pressured, with Q4 revenue and margin declines identified in the supplied analysis.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained. The supplied analysis says Q4 outlook calls for revenue down in the mid-teens and margins down 400–500 basis points.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 revenue declined 9% year over year, driven by Greater China wholesale weakness and classic footwear.
  • Performance categories, especially running and training, showed support from new product launches.
  • Management’s Win Now priorities center on product innovation, marketplace cleanup, brand investment, and local execution.
  • Inventory remains elevated, while NIKE Digital is being repositioned toward full-price selling.
  • The near-term outlook remains pressured even as management says corrective actions are taking hold.

Management priorities

  • Accelerate the product mix toward performance and reduce classic-franchise weight
  • Reduce promotional days and markdown rates in NIKE Digital
  • Clean up the marketplace through factory stores and value channels
  • Increase newness in seasonal assortments and launch Spring 26 innovations
  • Develop strategic brand partnerships, including NIKESKIMS

Follow NKE with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NKE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.85 Q2 '24 actual $1.03, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.74 Q3 '24 actual $0.98, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.83 Q4 '24 actual $1.01, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.52 Q1 '25 actual $0.70, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.13 Q4 '25 actual $0.14, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.27 Q1 '26 actual $0.49, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.37 Q2 '26 actual $0.53, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q3 '26 actual $0.35, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.11 Q4 '26 actual $0.72, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.43 Q1 '27 actual $0.48, beat Q2 '27 estimate $0.39 Q3 '27 estimate $0.26 Q4 '27 estimate $0.16 Q1 '28 estimate $0.48
Show less

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold71 ratings
Bullish3346.5%
Neutral3042.2%
Bearish811.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$35.47Current
$19Low
$79.97Average
$192High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 2, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainOct 2, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 2, 2026
Show 67 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $35.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankKrisztina Katai$33$35.02 -7.0%Oct 9, 2026
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$27.5$33.96 -22.5%Oct 6, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$37$33.87 +4.3%Oct 5, 2026
UBSJay Sole$34$33.1 -4.1%Oct 2, 2026
Evercore ISIMichael Binetti$28$33.22 -21.0%Oct 2, 2026
See 202 more

Track every rating change on NKE the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers.…

Historical context

All NKE earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Get the NKE recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-03-06T00:02:54.346456+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T14:20:42.987660+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T14:20:42.984923+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.