Netflix, Inc. · NFLX · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Netflix: Strong Q4, Raised 2026 Outlook, Warner Bros. Deal in Focus

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: membership and pricing power, advertising growth, and expanded content and engagement formats could support Netflix's trajectory, while acquisition approval, ad execution, competition, and content-cost discipline are the main tests.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $292.72B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.56 Consensus $0.55
EPS surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $12.05B Consensus $11.97B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.2% Event window
SPY move +1.2% Same window
Abnormal move -3.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -9.8% Up to 20 sessions
NFLXSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NFLX FY2025 Q4

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Why did NFLX fall 2.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NFLX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NFLX after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Versus the supplied prior-quarter analysis, management's tone remains confident but the guidance sentiment moved from maintained to raised. The current analysis adds a $51 billion 2026 revenue outlook, a 31.5% operating-margin target, a plan to double advertising revenue to about $3 billion, and the Warner Bros. Studios and HBO acquisition as a major strategic priority.

Guidance delta

Raised: management's supplied analysis says 2026 revenue is projected at $51 billion, with a 31.5% operating-margin target and continued margin expansion.

Key takeaways

  • Management's analysis describes Q4 revenue growth of 16% and operating-profit growth of 30%, with performance ahead of expectations.
  • The ad business is expected to double to about $3 billion in 2026, supporting the supplied $51 billion revenue outlook.
  • The Warner Bros. Studios and HBO acquisition is presented as a strategic accelerant, but regulatory approval and integration remain key uncertainties.
  • Live events, podcasts, vertical video, and cloud-first gaming broaden Netflix's engagement initiatives beyond its core streaming offer.

Management priorities

  • Scale advertising technology and ad sales across 12 markets.
  • Advance the Warner Bros. Studios and HBO acquisition, subject to regulatory review.
  • Expand global live events and live-operations capacity.
  • Develop vertical video, mobile-experience upgrades, cloud-first gaming, and new titles.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NFLX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $9B Q4 '23 actual $9B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $9B Q1 '24 actual $9B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $10B Q2 '24 actual $10B, match Q2 '25 estimate $11B Q2 '25 actual $11B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $12B Q3 '25 actual $12B, match Q4 '25 estimate $12B Q4 '25 actual $12B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $12B Q1 '26 actual $12B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $13B Q2 '26 actual $13B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $13B Q4 '26 estimate $14B Q1 '27 estimate $14B Q2 '27 estimate $14B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy98 ratings
Bullish6162.2%
Neutral2929.6%
Bearish88.2%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$69.58Current
$30.4Low
$103.02Average
$300High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
HSBC Hold BuyDowngradeSep 22, 2026
Wells Fargo Underweight Equal WeightDowngradeSep 18, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 14, 2026
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2026
Show 94 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $69.58. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$95$69.23 +36.5%Sep 29, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$57$75.31 -18.1%Sep 18, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$110$77.4 +58.1%Sep 14, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$90$68.67 +29.3%Jul 22, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$110$68.95 +58.1%Jul 20, 2026
See 281 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Historical context

All NFLX earnings
-7.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-9.7%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T22:51:35.027294+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T22:51:35.024755+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.