Netflix, Inc. · NFLX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Netflix Maintains 2026 Guidance While Expanding Ads and New Formats

The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive case for Netflix: maintained guidance, strong engagement and expansion in advertising and new formats provide evidence of resilient demand, while margin, competition, pricing and advertising execution remain the key tests.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $298.64B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.23 Consensus $0.76
EPS surprise +61.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $12.25B Consensus $12.18B
Revenue surprise +0.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -9.7% Event window
SPY move +1.2% Same window
Abnormal move -10.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -10.6% Up to 20 sessions
NFLXSPY benchmark

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Why did NFLX fall 9.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in NFLX's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for NFLX after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, Netflix had walked away from the Warner Bros. transaction and was emphasizing M&A discipline, while highlighting the Interpositive acquisition, Netflix Playground and broader live-event, podcast and AI initiatives. Core 2026 guidance remained maintained.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its 2026 revenue growth guidance of 12–14% and operating margin target of 31.5%; no change from the prior analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Management maintained 2026 revenue growth guidance of 12–14% and a 31.5% operating margin target.
  • The company is targeting $3 billion in 2026 advertising revenue and expects programmatic ads to exceed half of non-live advertising.
  • Netflix highlighted live events, podcasts, gaming, APAC growth and the Interpositive acquisition as expansion areas.

Management priorities

  • Double advertising revenue and increase the programmatic share.
  • Expand live sports, podcasts and the Netflix Playground kids-gaming platform.
  • Use Interpositive’s AI tools across content production and member experience.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NFLX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.22 Q4 '23 actual $2.11, miss Q1 '24 estimate $4.52 Q1 '24 actual $5.28, beat Q2 '24 estimate $4.74 Q2 '24 actual $4.88, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.71 Q2 '25 actual $0.72, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.70 Q3 '25 actual $0.59, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.55 Q4 '25 actual $0.56, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.76 Q1 '26 actual $1.23, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.79 Q2 '26 actual $0.80, match Q3 '26 estimate $0.82 Q4 '26 estimate $0.73 Q1 '27 estimate $0.94 Q2 '27 estimate $0.97

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy98 ratings
Bullish6162.2%
Neutral2929.6%
Bearish88.2%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$71.72Previous close
$30.4Low
$103.19Average
$300High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
HSBC Hold BuyDowngradeSep 22, 2026
Wells Fargo Underweight Equal WeightDowngradeSep 18, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 14, 2026
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 22, 2026
Show 94 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $71.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$57$75.31 -20.5%Sep 18, 2026
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$110$77.4 +53.4%Sep 14, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$90$68.67 +25.5%Jul 22, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$110$68.95 +53.4%Jul 20, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$115$74.35 +60.3%Jul 17, 2026
See 280 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Historical context

All NFLX earnings
-7.3%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T08:01:00.497493+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T08:01:00.494784+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.