Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish1862.1%
Neutral827.6%
Bearish310.3%
Strategy Inc · MSTR · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
MSTR Earnings: Record Originations, Normalizing Prepayments
The quarter supports a constructive operating view: record originations, strong venture-capital activity, private-credit platform growth, and liquidity strength outweighed near-term normalization risks. The main test is whether disciplined underwriting and technology investment can sustain growth as prepayments normalize and competition pressures spreads.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$52.52B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-24.45
Consensus $-2.19
EPS surprise
-1016.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$122.4M
Consensus $123.0M
Revenue surprise
-0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+36.5%
Up to 20 sessions
MSTRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MSTR FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MSTR fall 4.6% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in MSTR's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MSTR after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted record Q2 originations and investment income, early loan repayments that exceeded guidance, and approximately $2 billion of commitments on the Hercules Adviser platform. It also described an internal AI governance committee and a post-quarter $325 million unsecured-note issuance. The Q3 outlook calls for prepayments to normalize to $200–$300 million and core yields of 11.8%–12%.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management reaffirmed the Q3 outlook, including normalized prepayments of $200–$300 million and core yields of 11.8%–12%.
Key takeaways
- Record Q2 originations of $927 million in commitments and investment income of $149.1 million reflected strong venture-capital activity.
- Early repayments of $572.1 million supported liquidity and enabled a conservative leverage profile.
- Hercules Adviser manages approximately $2 billion of commitments and contributed $7 million of net investment income this quarter.
- Management emphasized disciplined underwriting and technology investments while acknowledging competition and prepayment normalization.
- The company implemented internal AI governance controls and issued $325 million of 6.3% unsecured notes after the quarter.
Management priorities
- Scale the private-credit adviser platform and seek additional commitments.
- Invest in CRM, pipeline, loan-servicing, and other technology systems.
- Maintain disciplined underwriting while exploring new geographic and sector opportunities.
- Use opportunistic unsecured-note issuance to preserve liquidity and fund future originations.
- Apply AI governance to improve analytics while protecting proprietary data.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$130.51Current
$11Low
$233.5Average
$570High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Nov 10, 2025 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2025 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 10, 2022 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2021 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 17, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 28, 2017 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 29, 2016 |
| Brean Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 12, 2016 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 4, 2015 |
| First Analysis | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 30, 2014 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Aug 11, 2014 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2013 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | May 1, 2013 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2013 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $130.51. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.C. Wainwright | Mike Colonnese | $250 | $141.62 | +91.6% | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $208 | $151.29 | +59.4% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nik Cremo | $175 | $151.47 | +34.1% | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Mark Palmer | $435 | $155.98 | +233.3% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $136.94 | +22.6% | Sep 15, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Joseph Vafi | $179 | $142.8 | +37.2% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Industrial Alliance Securities | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $124.88 | +66.3% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Gautam Chhugani | $350 | $126.83 | +168.2% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Joseph Vafi | $175 | $122.63 | +34.1% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $100.01 | +26.4% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ramsey El-Assal | $186 | $95.22 | +42.5% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Mike Colonnese | $325 | $93.28 | +149.0% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nik Cremo | $125 | $93.28 | -4.2% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| B.Riley Financial | Fedor Shabalin | $155 | $93.28 | +18.8% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $97.36 | -0.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $213 | $100.77 | +63.2% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Joseph Vafi | $130 | $86.93 | -0.4% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $86.93 | +91.6% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Joe Vafi | $163 | $136.08 | +24.9% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $265 | $159.09 | +103.0% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $186.82 | +71.6% | May 7, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $186.9 | +168.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $169.39 | +62.4% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $133.88 | +145.2% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $106.99 | +91.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $125.42 | +41.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Dan Dolev | $403 | $170.91 | +208.8% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $164.12 | +105.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $178.99 | +244.8% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $474 | $269.51 | +263.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Mark Palmer | $705 | $266.29 | +440.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $254.57 | +329.1% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Monness | Gus Gala | $175 | $295.7 | +34.1% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Monness | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $306.02 | +68.6% | Apr 1, 2025 |
| BTIG | Andrew Harte | $570 | $473.83 | +336.7% | Nov 20, 2024 |
| Maxim Group | Matthew Galinko | $270 | $247.31 | +106.9% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ramsey El-Assal | $146 | $119.57 | +11.9% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $29.21 | -69.4% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $11 | $13.81 | -91.6% | Dec 29, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $14 | $17.04 | -89.3% | Nov 9, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $18 | $26.59 | -86.2% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $21.5 | $20.91 | -83.5% | May 23, 2022 |
Track every rating change on MSTR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationStrategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. The company also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making. In addition, the company provides Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The company was formerly known as MicroStrategy Incorporated and changed its name to Strategy Inc in August 2025. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.
Historical context
All MSTR earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC Intel Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +27.9% | -28.6% | Intel: AI Server Demand Offsets PC Weakness, CapEx Rises |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.5% | +10.7% | GoDaddy: Airo accelerates while guidance is maintained |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.1% | +1.1% | MPWR tops $1 billion in revenue as data-center demand accelerates |
| TWLO Twilio Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +12.2% | -15.2% | Twilio raises growth outlook as AI and software adoption expand |
| SNDK Sandisk Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.1% | -13.5% | SNDK: AI-driven NAND demand remains strong, but execution risks persist |
| RBLX Roblox Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +26.2% | -18.1% | Roblox pairs strong engagement with lower Q4 bookings guidance |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
- ABBVFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.4% EPS+1.4% move
- GDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+9.0% EPS+0.5% move
- MGAFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+15.8% EPS-1.4% move
Missed on EPS
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- AMZNFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-4.1% EPS-1.6% move
Get the MSTR recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-31T00:06:58.790525+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-04T01:23:15.205020+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-31T11:20:41.984691+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-31T11:20:41.981896+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.