Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold46 ratings
Bullish1430.4%
Neutral2554.4%
Bearish715.2%
The Mosaic Company · MOS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Mosaic maintains 2026 plan amid sulfur and demand pressure
Mosaic's maintained 2026 framework and operating-efficiency initiatives support a constructive longer-term setup, but the evidence is mixed: sulfur costs, demand softness, capital intensity, and execution risks still need to ease for the improvement case to gain credibility.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$6.88B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.22
Consensus $0.48
EPS surprise
-54.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.97B
Consensus $2.93B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-5.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-6.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.9%
Up to 20 sessions
MOSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MOS FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MOS fall 5.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MOS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MOS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the focus from the prior quarter's reliability and inventory concerns toward sulfur-cost pressure, softer U.S. phosphate demand, a larger 2026 investment program, and expanded Mosaic Biosciences ambitions.
Guidance delta
Maintained: management reaffirmed its 2026 production and cash-flow framework while outlining higher near-term capex.
Key takeaways
- Operational efficiency improved, but higher sulfur costs remain a margin headwind.
- Management expects U.S. phosphate demand to recover in the 2026 planting season.
- Mosaic Biosciences is the clearest growth initiative in the supplied analysis.
- Capital allocation emphasizes 2026 investment, working-capital release, and non-core asset actions.
Management priorities
- Raise phosphate and potash production while improving operating reliability.
- Expand Mosaic Biosciences products and registrations.
- Execute waste-stack projects and pursue selected asset monetizations.
- Continue cost savings and release working capital.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$21.55Current
$22Low
$34.97Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freedom Broker | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| CIBC | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 27, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 16, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2023 |
| VTB Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 7, 2019 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 5, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 17, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | May 9, 2017 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2016 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2015 |
| BGC FInancial | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | May 22, 2014 |
| RS Platou Markets | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 9, 2014 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 1, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2013 |
| PiperJaffray | Hold | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 3, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2012 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Ameriprise Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $21.55. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $25 | $22.71 | +16.0% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $22.44 | +20.6% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $21.73 | +39.2% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $21.67 | +43.9% | May 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $30 | $21.58 | +39.2% | May 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $21.76 | +20.6% | May 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $22.78 | +2.1% | May 14, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.64 | +16.0% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Lucas Beaumont | $23 | $21.71 | +6.7% | May 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.79 | +11.4% | May 12, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.56 | +25.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $25 | $24.11 | +16.0% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $23.96 | +53.1% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $27 | $28.16 | +25.3% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $29 | $26.35 | +34.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $35 | $26.54 | +62.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $26.21 | +62.4% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $25.73 | +53.1% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.5 | +25.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $25.71 | +53.1% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $25.86 | +67.1% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $25.56 | +48.5% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $28.98 | +85.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $34 | $29.29 | +57.8% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.79 | +48.5% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.35 | +85.6% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $30.77 | +39.2% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $33.44 | +57.8% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $34.79 | +104.2% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $34.83 | +104.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $42 | $33.68 | +94.9% | May 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $40 | $32.95 | +85.6% | May 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $30 | $27.48 | +39.2% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $23.33 | +43.9% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $23.33 | +29.9% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $23.33 | +20.6% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $26 | $25.84 | +20.6% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $44 | $27.05 | +104.2% | Nov 13, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $38 | $25.68 | +76.3% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $32 | $27.7 | +48.5% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| CIBC | Jacob Bout | $35 | $30.5 | +62.4% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $30 | $27.03 | +39.2% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $28 | $28.76 | +29.9% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $32 | $29.54 | +48.5% | May 13, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $29 | $29.72 | +34.6% | May 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $32 | $28.68 | +48.5% | May 6, 2024 |
| CIBC | Jacob Bout | $36 | $29.09 | +67.1% | May 3, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $33 | $28.41 | +53.1% | May 3, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $35 | $32.89 | +62.4% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $44.64 | +150.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.41 | +155.2% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | John Roberts | $60 | $43.82 | +178.4% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $62.49 | +313.0% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $75.77 | +294.4% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $80 | $61.14 | +271.2% | Mar 7, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $49 | $45.25 | +127.4% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Sebastian Bray | $50 | $45.25 | +132.0% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $59 | $45.1 | +173.8% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| UBS | John Roberts CFA | $53 | $45.1 | +145.9% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $43 | $39.31 | +99.5% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $49 | $29.39 | +127.4% | Jul 16, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $45 | $34.61 | +108.8% | May 5, 2021 |
| VTB Capital | Elena Sakhnova | $32 | $34.88 | +48.5% | Apr 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MOS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product.…
Historical context
All MOS earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
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Get the MOS recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T01:16:04.353483+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T01:16:04.350381+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.