Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold46 ratings
Bullish1532.6%
Neutral2554.4%
Bearish613.0%
The Mosaic Company · MOS · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Mosaic Q1 FY2026: Sulfur Spike Forces Curtailments, EPS Misses Sharply
Mosaic's Q1 FY2026 was defined by a severe EPS miss ($0.05 vs $0.24 estimated) as soaring sulfur and ammonia prices forced temporary phosphate production curtailments. Revenue of $3.0B slightly exceeded consensus. Management responded by cutting 2026 capex by $250M to $1.25B and launching a $50M cost-savings program. The potash segment stayed resilient on record Canpotex sales and strong Asian demand. Management tone shifted from confident in Q4 to cautious, with the bullish score falling from 70 to 45. Long-term growth drivers -- Mosaic Biosciences expansion and a new rare-earth extraction partnership with Rainbow Rare Earths -- remain intact but are not near-term catalysts. The stock declined 1.80% on the report with 2.06x baseline volume and continued to drift lower.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$7.24B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.05
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
-79.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.00B
Consensus $2.93B
Revenue surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$22.12Current
$22Low
$35.25Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| CIBC | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 27, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 16, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2023 |
| VTB Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 7, 2019 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 5, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 17, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | May 9, 2017 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2016 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2015 |
| BGC Financial | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | May 22, 2014 |
| RS Platou Markets | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 9, 2014 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 1, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2013 |
| PiperJaffray | Hold | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 3, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2012 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Ameriprise Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $22.12. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $22.44 | +17.5% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $21.73 | +35.6% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $21.67 | +40.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $30 | $21.58 | +35.6% | May 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $21.76 | +17.5% | May 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $22.78 | -0.5% | May 14, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.64 | +13.0% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Lucas Beaumont | $23 | $21.71 | +4.0% | May 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.79 | +8.5% | May 12, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.56 | +22.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $25 | $24.11 | +13.0% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $23.96 | +49.2% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $27 | $28.16 | +22.1% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $29 | $26.35 | +31.1% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $35 | $26.54 | +58.2% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $26.21 | +58.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $25.73 | +49.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.5 | +22.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $25.71 | +49.2% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $25.86 | +62.7% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $25.56 | +44.7% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $28.98 | +80.8% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $34 | $29.29 | +53.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.79 | +44.7% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.35 | +80.8% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $30.77 | +35.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $33.44 | +53.7% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $34.79 | +98.9% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $34.83 | +98.9% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $42 | $33.68 | +89.9% | May 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $40 | $32.95 | +80.8% | May 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $30 | $27.48 | +35.6% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $23.33 | +40.1% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $23.33 | +26.6% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $23.33 | +17.5% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $26 | $25.84 | +17.5% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $44 | $27.05 | +98.9% | Nov 13, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $38 | $25.68 | +71.8% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $32 | $27.7 | +44.7% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| CIBC | Jacob Bout | $35 | $30.5 | +58.2% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $30 | $27.03 | +35.6% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $28 | $28.76 | +26.6% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $32 | $29.54 | +44.7% | May 13, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $29 | $29.72 | +31.1% | May 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $32 | $28.68 | +44.7% | May 6, 2024 |
| CIBC | Jacob Bout | $36 | $29.09 | +62.7% | May 3, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $33 | $28.41 | +49.2% | May 3, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $35 | $32.89 | +58.2% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $44.64 | +144.1% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.41 | +148.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | John Roberts | $60 | $43.82 | +171.2% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $62.49 | +302.4% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $75.77 | +284.3% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $80 | $61.14 | +261.7% | Mar 7, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $49 | $45.25 | +121.5% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Sebastian Bray | $50 | $45.25 | +126.0% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $59 | $45.1 | +166.7% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| UBS | John Roberts CFA | $53 | $45.1 | +139.6% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $43 | $39.31 | +94.4% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $49 | $29.39 | +121.5% | Jul 16, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $45 | $34.61 | +103.4% | May 5, 2021 |
| VTB Capital | Elena Sakhnova | $32 | $34.88 | +44.7% | Apr 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MOS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.3%
Up to 20 sessions
MOSSPY benchmark
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What changed
Versus the prior quarter, management tone shifted from confident to cautious and the bullish score fell from 70 to 45. Capex outlook reversed from increasing to decreasing, with 2026 spending cut by $250M to $1.25B. Production curtailments were introduced as sulfur and ammonia costs spiked. New developments include a rare-earth extraction partnership with Rainbow Rare Earths, completion of the Carlsbad potash mine sale, and idling of SSP production at Araxa and Patrocinio. The working-capital release target of $300-500M was maintained.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained, but the 2026 capex program was reduced by $250 million from $1.5B to $1.25B, reversing the prior quarter's increasing capex outlook. A new $50M cost-savings program was initiated. The working-capital release target of $300-500M remains in place. Production volume targets for phosphate (at least 7M tonnes) and potash (~9M tonnes) were maintained, though curtailments introduce near-term execution risk.
Key takeaways
- Phosphate market remains extremely tight; sulfur and ammonia price spikes force temporary production curtailments.
- 2026 CapEx lowered by $250M to $1.25B and a $50M cost-savings program initiated.
- Potash business is resilient with record Canpotex sales and strong demand in the U.S. and Asia.
- Mosaic Biosciences growth and a new rare-earth extraction initiative provide long-term upside.
- Cash-flow focus remains paramount, with a $300-500M working-capital release still targeted.
Management priorities
- Launch 8-10 new Mosaic Biosciences products throughout 2026.
- Develop the Uparaba gypstack rare-earth extraction project with Rainbow Rare Earths.
- Evaluate potential sale or alternative development of Araxa and Patrocinio assets, including a niobium project.
- Continue reallocating capital toward higher-return assets and defer non-essential CapEx.
- Maintain focus on cash-flow generation and further cost-saving initiatives.
Related earnings events
Basic MaterialsSources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T17:17:12.892979+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T21:31:18.498942+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T21:31:18.496009+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.