Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold19 ratings
Bullish631.6%
Neutral1263.1%
Bearish15.3%
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · LW · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2025
Lamb Weston: volume growth offsets pricing and traffic pressure
Lamb Weston's Q2 analysis supports a mixed view: resilient volume growth, share gains and cost actions provide support, while price-mix pressure and execution risks constrain confidence in a durable improvement.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$5.95B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.69
Consensus $0.64
EPS surprise
+7.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.62B
Consensus $1.59B
Revenue surprise
+1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-25.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-26.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
18.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.9%
Up to 20 sessions
LWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LW FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did LW fall 25.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in LW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for LW after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis highlights 8% Q2 volume growth, continued share gains, strong free cash flow, a 3% dividend increase and $40 million of repurchases. Management maintained guidance and expects EBITDA near its midpoint, while pricing pressure persists.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management expects FY2026 EBITDA to finish near the midpoint of its guidance range.
Key takeaways
- Q2 volume growth and share gains supported the quarter despite soft restaurant traffic.
- Cost savings, lower capex and strong free cash flow remain important supports.
- Pricing pressure, tariffs and Argentina ramp-up costs temper the outlook.
Management priorities
- Keep reopened North American lines operating.
- Complete Argentina facility ramp-up and qualification.
- Invest incrementally in innovation and advertising while pursuing share gains.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$42.3Current
$48Low
$63.72Average
$132High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2019 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 22, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 16, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $42.3. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens | Pooran Sharma | $50 | $43.58 | +18.2% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $53.11 | +30.0% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $57 | $53.11 | +34.7% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $52 | $49.64 | +22.9% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $57 | $49.58 | +34.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.58 | +22.9% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $56 | $49.58 | +32.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $50 | $46.6 | +18.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $48 | $45.23 | +13.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $46.51 | +27.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $46 | $41.84 | +8.7% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.8 | +30.0% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.64 | +13.5% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.13 | +15.8% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.94 | +18.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.01 | +48.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $58.08 | +56.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $58.08 | +60.7% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $58.08 | +53.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $56 | $52.49 | +32.4% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $57 | $52.68 | +34.7% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $90 | $77.28 | +112.7% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $80 | $78.22 | +89.1% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $87 | $78.22 | +105.6% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $74 | $67.61 | +74.9% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $77 | $66.58 | +82.0% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $65.44 | +77.3% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $96 | $79.07 | +126.9% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $105 | $79.78 | +148.2% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $98 | $81.53 | +131.7% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $132 | $81.53 | +212.0% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $81.53 | +171.8% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.68 | +152.9% | Jan 6, 2023 |
Track every rating change on LW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
Historical context
All LW earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
| BF-A Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | — | Brown-Forman holds FY27 outlook as RTD innovation offsets barrel pressure |
| BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | — | Brown-Forman maintains FY27 outlook as innovation offsets pressure |
Latest beats and misses
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- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
Get the LW recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T15:36:13.827836+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T15:36:13.824642+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.