Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold19 ratings
Bullish631.6%
Neutral1263.1%
Bearish15.3%
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · LW · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2024
Lamb Weston: Guidance Cut as Demand and Utilization Weaken
The quarter weakens the near-term operating case: lower demand, overcapacity and utilization pressure led to a guidance cut. Restructuring, lower capital spending and new-customer efforts could support recovery, but execution and industry balance remain key tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$7.38B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.05
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.67B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-20.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-20.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
5.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.6%
Up to 20 sessions
LWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LW FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LW's -20.1% move after FY2025 Q2 earnings?What changed in LW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for LW after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the tone remained cautious but the outlook deteriorated: FY2025 guidance was lowered, capital spending was reduced, and management highlighted a major customer loss, competitive capacity and continued utilization pressure.
Guidance delta
Management lowered FY2025 guidance to $6.35–$6.45 billion of sales and $1.17–$1.21 billion of adjusted EBITDA.
Key takeaways
- Q2 sales and EBITDA missed expectations, with sales down 8% year over year.
- Management cited weak restaurant traffic, increased competitive capacity and lower utilization.
- Cost reductions, lower capital spending and a focus on free cash flow are the main offsets.
Management priorities
- Reduce capital expenditures to approximately $750 million in FY2025 and $550 million in FY2026
- Continue restructuring and supply-chain cost optimization
- Pursue non-traditional fry customers and new product innovation
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$53.59Current
$48Low
$64.28Average
$132High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 19, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2019 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 22, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 16, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $53.59. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $58 | $48.09 | +8.2% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $48.89 | -1.1% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $47.91 | +8.2% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Stephens | Pooran Sharma | $50 | $43.58 | -6.7% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $53.11 | +2.6% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $57 | $53.11 | +6.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $52 | $49.64 | -3.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $57 | $49.58 | +6.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.58 | -3.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $56 | $49.58 | +4.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $50 | $46.6 | -6.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $48 | $45.23 | -10.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $46.51 | +0.8% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $46 | $41.84 | -14.2% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.8 | +2.6% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.64 | -10.4% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.13 | -8.6% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.94 | -6.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.01 | +17.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $58.08 | +23.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $58.08 | +26.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $58.08 | +21.3% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $56 | $52.49 | +4.5% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $57 | $52.68 | +6.4% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $90 | $77.28 | +67.9% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $80 | $78.22 | +49.3% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $87 | $78.22 | +62.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $74 | $67.61 | +38.1% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $77 | $66.58 | +43.7% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $65.44 | +40.0% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $96 | $79.07 | +79.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $105 | $79.78 | +95.9% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $98 | $81.53 | +82.9% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $132 | $81.53 | +146.3% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $81.53 | +114.6% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.68 | +99.7% | Jan 6, 2023 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-12-14T08:29:37.829161+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-19T01:20:43.512421+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-19T01:20:43.509820+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-19. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.