KeyCorp · KEY-PJ · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

KeyCorp posts record revenue year while accelerating buybacks and tech investment

KeyCorp's record revenue growth, fee-business expansion and planned technology investment support a constructive operating trajectory, but the case depends on commercial-loan growth, deposit costs, M&A activity and disciplined capital management.

Reported January 20, 2026Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $14.31B market cap

75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus

Reported EPS $0.43 Consensus $0.39

EPS surprise +11.1% Reported versus consensus

Reported revenue $2.00B Consensus $1.96B

Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable

Stock move — Event window

SPY move — Same window

Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY

Volume — Versus trailing sessions

Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions

Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

Ask FN2 about KEY-PJ FY2025 Q4

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How did the market react to KEY-PJ FY2025 Q4 earnings, and why?What changed in KEY-PJ's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for KEY-PJ after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

KeyCorp emphasized a stronger capital-return plan, approximately $1 billion of technology and AI spending, continued C&I loan remixing and expansion of fee-based businesses. It also disclosed over $1 billion of client escrow deposits and a $2.5 billion brokered-CD balance at quarter-end.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management indicated approximately 7% 2026 revenue growth with expenses growing more slowly.

Key takeaways

Q4 revenue grew 12% year over year, while full-year revenue rose 16%.
Management targeted $300 million of first-quarter 2026 repurchases and $1.2 billion for 2026.
Wealth, payments and investment banking were identified as fee-growth drivers.
KeyCorp plans about $1 billion of technology and AI investment focused on underwriting, call centers and digital banking.
C&I loan growth and a shift away from lower-yield consumer loans were central to the growth plan.

Management priorities

Grow C&I lending and remix the loan portfolio toward higher-yield commercial assets.
Expand wealth management, including the mass-affluent platform.
Develop commercial payments and investment-banking fee businesses.
Increase technology and AI spending to about $1 billion.
Replace brokered CDs with lower-cost client deposits while managing capital ratios.

Risks

Consumer-loan runoff and potential C&I credit pressure.
Deposit-beta volatility and continued reliance on replacing brokered CDs.
A slowdown in middle-market M&A or sponsor activity.
Macroeconomic uncertainty, including interest-rate and fiscal-policy shifts.
Regulatory capital-rule changes and specialty-finance reporting changes.

Analyst concerns

Investment-banking fee guidance may prove conservative relative to potential upside.
Deposit-beta assumptions are important to NIM and net-interest-income projections.
The timing of a bottom in average earning assets and the effect of consumer-loan runoff remain uncertain.
Visibility into middle-market M&A beyond the first quarter is limited.
Higher capital return could affect the CET1 ratio.

Editorial confidence: medium
Market-reaction data is unavailable. · There is no prior-quarter analysis in the supplied facts. · The outlook depends on deposit, loan, M&A and capital assumptions identified…

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Earnings History

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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy39 ratings

Bullish2256.4%

Neutral1641.0%

Bearish12.6%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

Firm	Rating	Prior rating	Action	Date
JP Morgan	Neutral	Neutral	Maintain	Oct 4, 2023
Wolfe Research	Peer Perform	Underperform	Upgrade	Oct 3, 2023
Morgan Stanley	Equal Weight	Equal Weight	Maintain	Sep 26, 2023
Piper Sandler	Overweight	Neutral	Upgrade	Sep 14, 2023
Goldman Sachs	Buy	Buy	Maintain	Jul 23, 2023
Citigroup	Buy	Buy	Maintain	Jul 23, 2023
Argus Research	Buy	Buy	Maintain	Jul 23, 2023
Wedbush	Neutral	Neutral	Maintain	Jul 20, 2023
Wells Fargo	Overweight	Overweight	Maintain	Jun 12, 2023
RBC Capital	Outperform	Outperform	Maintain	Jun 12, 2023
Odeon Capital	Buy	Hold	Upgrade	May 21, 2023
DA Davidson	Buy	Buy	Maintain	Apr 20, 2023
Baird	Outperform	Neutral	Upgrade	Mar 9, 2023
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Market Perform	Market Perform	Maintain	Mar 7, 2023
Barclays	Equal Weight	Underweight	Upgrade	Jan 2, 2023
Deutsche Bank	Hold	Hold	Maintain	Sep 11, 2022
Jefferies	Hold	Hold	Maintain	Jul 10, 2022
Credit Suisse	Outperform	Neutral	Upgrade	Feb 7, 2022
B of A Securities	Buy	Underperform	Upgrade	Dec 14, 2021
Stephens & Co.	Equal Weight	Equal Weight	Maintain	Oct 21, 2021
UBS	Neutral	Buy	Downgrade	May 3, 2020
Nomura	Neutral	Neutral	Maintain	Apr 6, 2020
BMO Capital	Market Perform	Market Perform	Maintain	Jul 23, 2019
Standpoint Research	Buy	Hold	Upgrade	Oct 11, 2018
Mizuho	Overweight	Overweight	Maintain	Jul 23, 2018
Susquehanna	Positive	Neutral	Upgrade	Apr 23, 2018
Bernstein	Outperform	Market Perform	Upgrade	Sep 13, 2017
Rafferty Capital	Buy	Hold	Upgrade	Oct 24, 2016
FBR Capital	Outperform	Market Perform	Upgrade	Jul 10, 2016
Macquarie	Outperform	Outperform	Maintain	Nov 1, 2015
Wunderlich Securities	Buy	Buy	Maintain	Jul 16, 2015
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey	Neutral	Neutral	Maintain	Jun 28, 2015
IBERIA Capital Partners	Sector Perform	Outperform	Downgrade	Jul 17, 2014
Compass Point	Buy	Buy	Maintain	Apr 20, 2014
BTIG	Neutral	Buy	Downgrade	May 14, 2013
Stifel	Sell	Hold	Downgrade	Feb 10, 2013
Sterne Agee	Neutral	Neutral	Maintain	Jan 27, 2013
CLSA	Outperform	Sell	Upgrade	Jan 22, 2013
Oppenheimer	Outperform	Perform	Upgrade	Jan 8, 2013

Show 34 more rating actions

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses.…

Historical context

All KEY-PJ earnings

—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026—FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Company	Quarter	EPS surprise	Market move	Headline
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc.	FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026	+1.5%	+2.2%	EWBC: Record Q3 Results, Higher NII Guidance
COF Capital One Financial Corporation	FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026	+21.6%	+0.9%	Capital One posts Q3 beat as synergies and credit trends strengthen
KEY-PK KeyCorp	FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026	+10.5%	—	KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PL KeyCorp	FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026	+10.5%	—	KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and commercial demand rise
KEY-PI KeyCorp	FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026	+10.5%	—	KeyCorp posts record Q3 as deposits and commercial lending accelerate
KEY KeyCorp	FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026	+10.5%	+4.5%	KeyCorp Q3 revenue tops $2 billion as deposits and utilization strengthen

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Sources

Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated October 21, 2026 · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.