KeyCorp · KEY-PJ · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

KeyCorp posts record revenue year while accelerating buybacks and tech investment

KeyCorp's record revenue growth, fee-business expansion and planned technology investment support a constructive operating trajectory, but the case depends on commercial-loan growth, deposit costs, M&A activity and disciplined capital management.

Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $14.31B market cap
75quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.43 Consensus $0.39
EPS surprise +11.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.00B Consensus $1.96B
Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

unavailable
Stock move — Event window
SPY move — Same window
Abnormal move — Stock minus SPY
Volume — Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift — Up to 20 sessions
Price and volume data were unavailable at publication time.

Ask FN2 about KEY-PJ FY2025 Q4

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How did the market react to KEY-PJ FY2025 Q4 earnings, and why?What changed in KEY-PJ's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for KEY-PJ after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

KeyCorp emphasized a stronger capital-return plan, approximately $1 billion of technology and AI spending, continued C&I loan remixing and expansion of fee-based businesses. It also disclosed over $1 billion of client escrow deposits and a $2.5 billion brokered-CD balance at quarter-end.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management indicated approximately 7% 2026 revenue growth with expenses growing more slowly.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 revenue grew 12% year over year, while full-year revenue rose 16%.
  • Management targeted $300 million of first-quarter 2026 repurchases and $1.2 billion for 2026.
  • Wealth, payments and investment banking were identified as fee-growth drivers.
  • KeyCorp plans about $1 billion of technology and AI investment focused on underwriting, call centers and digital banking.
  • C&I loan growth and a shift away from lower-yield consumer loans were central to the growth plan.

Management priorities

  • Grow C&I lending and remix the loan portfolio toward higher-yield commercial assets.
  • Expand wealth management, including the mass-affluent platform.
  • Develop commercial payments and investment-banking fee businesses.
  • Increase technology and AI spending to about $1 billion.
  • Replace brokered CDs with lower-cost client deposits while managing capital ratios.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
KEY-PJ EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 actual $0.23, None Q2 '24 actual $0.29, None Q2 '25 estimate $0.35 Q2 '25 actual $0.39, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.38 Q3 '25 actual $0.44, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.39 Q4 '25 actual $0.43, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.41 Q1 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.42 Q2 '26 actual $0.44, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q3 '26 actual $0.51, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.50 Q1 '27 estimate $0.50 Q2 '27 estimate $0.51 Q3 '27 estimate $0.56
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy39 ratings
Bullish2256.4%
Neutral1641.0%
Bearish12.6%

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 4, 2023
Wolfe Research Peer Perform UnderperformUpgradeOct 3, 2023
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 26, 2023
Piper Sandler Overweight NeutralUpgradeSep 14, 2023
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2023
Show 34 more rating actions

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits, investment products and services; and personal finance and financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, lending, credit card, treasury, business advisory, wealth management, asset management, investment, cash management, portfolio management, and trust and related services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses.…

Historical context

All KEY-PJ earnings
—FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026—FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026—FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
KEY-PK KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and loan demand support growth
KEY-PL KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts strong Q3 as deposits and commercial demand rise
KEY-PI KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% — KeyCorp posts record Q3 as deposits and commercial lending accelerate
KEY KeyCorp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.5% +4.5% KeyCorp Q3 revenue tops $2 billion as deposits and utilization strengthen
ALLY Ally Financial Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.5% +1.0% Ally reports strong Q3 growth while monitoring credit quality
SYF-PA Synchrony Financial FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.7% — Synchrony reaffirms FY EPS outlook as digital partnerships expand

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.