Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy56 ratings
Bullish3562.5%
Neutral1730.4%
Bearish47.1%
Capital One Financial Corporation · COF · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Capital One: Strong Credit and Synergies, Higher Investment Ahead
The current analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong credit performance, early acquisition synergies, and AI and technology investment improve the earnings trajectory, while higher marketing costs and integration execution determine how much of that potential reaches efficiency and growth.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$122.59B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $5.50
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $16.25B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move
+0.9%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
COFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about COF FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove COF's +0.9% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in COF's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for COF after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis describes stronger evidence of execution: combined Discover-Brex synergies are ahead of schedule, credit metrics improved, and net interest margin rose to 8.41%. The investment burden also increased, with marketing expense up 14% year over year and elevated spending expected to continue.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained. The company expects elevated marketing investment to continue in 2027, with Discover back-book conversion targeted by Q1 and further Brex platform integration planned.
Key takeaways
- Q3 analysis points to adjusted EPS of $6.69, pre-provision earnings growth, and strong credit performance.
- Discover and Brex synergies were described as ahead of schedule, with roughly $1.8 billion in annualized combined synergies.
- Marketing expense rose 14% year over year to $1.6 billion, while management plans continued investment in growth and technology.
Management priorities
- Complete the Discover back-book migration to Capital One’s technology stack by Q1.
- Roll out Brex spend-management tools and integrate them with the Capital One Travel portal.
- Use AI and data analytics across underwriting, risk, fraud, operations, and cross-sell.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$201.56Current
$140Low
$231.31Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Odeon Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 2, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2020 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 11, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 14, 2018 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2018 |
| Instinet | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2018 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 22, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 18, 2017 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2016 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2016 |
| Rafferty Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2016 |
| Rafferty | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2016 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 8, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 8, 2016 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | May 9, 2016 |
| Sandler O'Neil | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 27, 2016 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 6, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2015 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2014 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 14, 2013 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 28, 2013 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 18, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 18, 2013 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 14, 2012 |
| Rochdale Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 22, 2012 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2012 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | May 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $201.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $219 | $199.4 | +8.7% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $237 | $194.72 | +17.6% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $193.07 | +9.1% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $200.2 | +29.0% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $216.27 | +36.4% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $215.34 | +21.6% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $280 | $216.64 | +38.9% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $206.22 | +19.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| HSBC | Saul Martinez | $229 | $201.52 | +13.6% | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $191.95 | +14.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $206.5 | +20.1% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $202.28 | +28.5% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $202.28 | +26.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $255 | $199.43 | +26.5% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $202.37 | +35.4% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Jon Arfstrom | $235 | $191.7 | +16.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $194.73 | +29.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $194.73 | +5.7% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $300 | $180.85 | +48.8% | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $220.17 | +36.4% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $287 | $217.3 | +42.4% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $222.17 | +27.0% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $235.07 | +34.0% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $234.39 | +48.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $231.5 | +36.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $255.26 | +43.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $300 | $250.51 | +48.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $250.51 | +45.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $280 | $251.94 | +38.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $308 | $248.45 | +52.8% | Dec 26, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $246.1 | +43.9% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $240.59 | +38.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Mihir Bhatia | $268 | $240.76 | +33.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Darrin Peller | $270 | $230.68 | +34.0% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Moshe Orenbuch | $261 | $218.61 | +29.5% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $270 | $217.05 | +34.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $271 | $223.59 | +34.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $210.74 | +8.2% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $213.14 | +32.0% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $214.4 | +27.5% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $223.6 | +26.5% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jeffrey Adelson | $267 | $224.05 | +32.5% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $182.73 | +11.6% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Jon Arfstrom | $190 | $162.52 | -5.7% | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $174.82 | +6.7% | Mar 21, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $200 | $165.4 | -0.8% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $210 | $178.89 | +4.2% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Mark DeVries | $215 | $178.89 | +6.7% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Keith Horowitz | $225 | $182.64 | +11.6% | Nov 21, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Keith Horowitz | $190 | $151.98 | -5.7% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $165 | $135.48 | -18.1% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Moshe Orenbuch | $150 | $144.35 | -25.6% | May 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Bill Carcache | $189 | $143.27 | -6.2% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Mihir Bhatia | $129 | $113.77 | -36.0% | Dec 6, 2023 |
| Stephens | Vincent Caintic | $140 | $108.29 | -30.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $108.93 | -22.1% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $108.77 | -15.7% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $114.27 | -40.0% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $145 | $102.11 | -28.1% | Jun 17, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $143 | $124.35 | -29.1% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $125.43 | -6.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $125.98 | -4.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $132.23 | -24.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $132.23 | -20.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Dominick Gabriele | $163 | $130.42 | -19.1% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Mihir Bhatia | $167 | $133.25 | -17.1% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $194 | $144.35 | -3.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Meng Jiao | $192 | $144.35 | -4.7% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Stephens | Vincent Caintic | $205 | $144.35 | +1.7% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Moshe Orenbuch | $185 | $144.35 | -8.2% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Jon Arfstrom | $177 | $151.58 | -12.2% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Richard Shane | $177 | $151.03 | -12.2% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $174 | $150.16 | -13.7% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $207 | $147.77 | +2.7% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Eric Wasserstrom | $200 | $151.84 | -0.8% | Nov 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on COF the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationCapital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association, which collectively offer a broad spectrum of financial products and services throughout the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its extensive operations into three core divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Clients can utilize various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits.…
Historical context
All COF earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI MSCI Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +5.0% | MSCI: AI-led product momentum offsets ongoing Climate pressure |
| COF-PL Capital One Financial Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | Capital One Q3: Integration Synergies and Marketing Investment |
| COF-PN Capital One Financial Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | Capital One highlights integration synergies and stronger Q3 earnings power |
| EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.2% | East West Bancorp: Deposits and Credit Support a Confident Q3 |
| KEY-PK KeyCorp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | KeyCorp Q3 2026: Record Revenue, Higher Growth Guidance |
| KEY-PL KeyCorp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | — | KeyCorp reports strong Q3 execution as deposits and utilization rise |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-21T00:04:15.454410+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-20T01:23:14.154112+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-21T00:20:40.693420+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-21T00:20:40.690741+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.