Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy56 ratings
Bullish3562.5%
Neutral1730.4%
Bearish47.1%
Capital One Financial Corporation · COF · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Capital One Beats on EPS as Discover Integration Advances, Brex Adds Early Synergies
Capital One delivered a 21% EPS beat in Q2 2026 as Discover integration synergies and robust credit quality powered adjusted EPS to $5.81. The stock sold off 2.4% on the print, likely reacting to flat pre-provision earnings and a 7% YoY rise in non-interest expense, but subsequently recovered 5.5%, suggesting the market warmed to the integration story. The investment thesis hinges on execution: completing the Discover migration by Q3, scaling Brex, and delivering the remaining two-thirds of operating synergies by H2 2027.
Reported After market closeNYSEFinancial Services
$127.03B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationCapital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Association, which collectively offer a broad spectrum of financial products and services throughout the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company structures its extensive operations into three core divisions: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. Clients can utilize various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$5.81
Consensus $5
EPS surprise
+21.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$15.85B
Consensus $15.76B
Revenue surprise
+0.6%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$221.47Current
$140Low
$232.44Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Aug 19, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 13, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 30, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 11, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 4, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Odeon Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 2, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 24, 2020 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 11, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 14, 2018 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2018 |
| Instinet | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2018 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 24, 2018 |
| Compass Point | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 22, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 18, 2017 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2016 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2016 |
| Rafferty Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2016 |
| Rafferty | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2016 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 8, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 8, 2016 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | May 9, 2016 |
| Sandler O'Neil | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 27, 2016 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 6, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 24, 2015 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2014 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 14, 2013 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 28, 2013 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 18, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 18, 2013 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 14, 2012 |
| Rochdale Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 22, 2012 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2012 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | May 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $221.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $280 | $216.64 | +26.4% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $206.22 | +8.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| HSBC | Saul Martinez | $229 | $201.52 | +3.4% | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $191.95 | +4.3% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $206.5 | +9.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $259 | $202.28 | +16.9% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $254 | $202.28 | +14.7% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $255 | $199.43 | +15.1% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $202.37 | +23.3% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Jon Arfstrom | $235 | $191.7 | +6.1% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $194.73 | +17.4% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $194.73 | -3.8% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $300 | $180.85 | +35.5% | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $220.17 | +24.2% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $287 | $217.3 | +29.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $222.17 | +15.6% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $235.07 | +21.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $234.39 | +35.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $231.5 | +24.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $255.26 | +30.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $300 | $250.51 | +35.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $250.51 | +32.7% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $280 | $251.94 | +26.4% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $308 | $248.45 | +39.1% | Dec 26, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $246.1 | +30.9% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $240.59 | +26.4% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Mihir Bhatia | $268 | $240.76 | +21.0% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Darrin Peller | $270 | $230.68 | +21.9% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Moshe Orenbuch | $261 | $218.61 | +17.8% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $270 | $217.05 | +21.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Terry Ma | $271 | $223.59 | +22.4% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $210.74 | -1.6% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $213.14 | +20.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $214.4 | +16.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $223.6 | +15.1% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Jeffrey Adelson | $267 | $224.05 | +20.6% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $182.73 | +1.6% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Jon Arfstrom | $190 | $162.52 | -14.2% | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $174.82 | -2.9% | Mar 21, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $200 | $165.4 | -9.7% | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Donald Fandetti | $210 | $178.89 | -5.2% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Mark DeVries | $215 | $178.89 | -2.9% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Capital One Financial | Keith Horowitz | $225 | $182.64 | +1.6% | Nov 21, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Keith Horowitz | $190 | $151.98 | -14.2% | Sep 20, 2024 |
| Jefferies | John Hecht | $165 | $135.48 | -25.5% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Moshe Orenbuch | $150 | $144.35 | -32.3% | May 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Bill Carcache | $189 | $143.27 | -14.7% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Capital One Financial | Mihir Bhatia | $129 | $113.77 | -41.8% | Dec 6, 2023 |
| Stephens | Vincent Caintic | $140 | $108.29 | -36.8% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $108.93 | -29.1% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $108.77 | -23.2% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $114.27 | -45.4% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $145 | $102.11 | -34.5% | Jun 17, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Kevin Barker | $143 | $124.35 | -35.4% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Capital One Financial | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $125.43 | -15.1% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $125.98 | -12.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $132.23 | -31.4% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $132.23 | -27.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Dominick Gabriele | $163 | $130.42 | -26.4% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Mihir Bhatia | $167 | $133.25 | -24.6% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | James Fotheringham | $194 | $144.35 | -12.4% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Meng Jiao | $192 | $144.35 | -13.3% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Stephens | Vincent Caintic | $205 | $144.35 | -7.4% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Moshe Orenbuch | $185 | $144.35 | -16.5% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Jon Arfstrom | $177 | $151.58 | -20.1% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Richard Shane | $177 | $151.03 | -20.1% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $174 | $150.16 | -21.4% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $207 | $147.77 | -6.5% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Eric Wasserstrom | $200 | $151.84 | -9.7% | Nov 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on COF the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.5%
Up to 20 sessions
COFSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q2 adjusted EPS rose to $5.81 from $4.42 in Q1, a 32% sequential improvement and a 21.3% beat versus consensus. Revenue grew 4% YoY to $15.85B, narrowly above the $15.76B estimate. Non-interest expense rose 7% YoY, keeping adjusted pre-provision earnings flat. Provision for credit losses fell 27% YoY. CET1 dipped modestly to 13.7%. Half of Discover originations are now on Capital One's technology platform. Brex showed early credit-loss benefits and cost-of-funds improvement within 100 days of closing. Liquidity declined $21B QoQ, though the net stable funding ratio held at 136%.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance. They reiterated plans to complete remaining Discover originations migration to Capital One technology by end of Q3, scale Brex integration including marketing and travel portal rollout, and deliver the remaining two-thirds of operating expense synergies by H2 2027.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of $5.81 beat consensus by 21.3%; revenue of $15.85B edged past the $15.76B estimate.
- Discover integration on track with 50% of originations now on Capital One's platform; full migration targeted by Q3 2026.
- Brex delivered early credit-loss benefits and cost-of-funds improvement within 100 days of closing.
- Provision for credit losses declined 27% YoY, signaling strong credit quality across cards and auto.
- CET1 dipped to 13.7% and liquidity fell $21B QoQ, but net stable funding ratio remained strong at 136%.
- Two-thirds of operating expense synergies from Discover remain to be delivered by H2 2027.
Management priorities
- Complete migration of remaining Discover originations to Capital One technology by end of Q3.
- Scale Brex integration, including marketing and travel portal rollout.
- Continue heavy investment in AI, data analytics, and core technology foundation.
- Accelerate international acceptance for the Discover network in key travel destinations.
- Deliver remaining two-thirds of operating expense synergies by H2 2027.
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesHIG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026The Hartford Beats on Q2 Core Earnings, Divests Hartford Funds, Expands Buyback to $4.2BAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedGL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Globe Life Q2: Net Income Up 20%, EPS Guidance Raised on AI and Reinsurance Initiatives
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-22T14:03:58.842561+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-28T01:23:15.070317+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T23:31:23.539179+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T23:31:23.536284+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.