KeyCorp outlines 2026 growth plan amid credit and funding risks

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management paired maintained 2026 guidance with an expanded capital-return plan, including at least $300 million of Q1 repurchases and $1.2 billion for the full year. The company also highlighted $1 billion of technology and AI spending, further cost savings, frontline-bank hiring, and a shift toward client deposits.

Guidance delta

Maintained: 2026 guidance calls for approximately 7% revenue growth, 8%-10% net-interest-income growth, 3%-4% expense growth, and 300-400 basis points of operating leverage.

Key takeaways

• KeyCorp reported record Q4 and full-year 2025 results, with strong net-interest and fee-income growth.
• Management expects 2026 growth from commercial lending, payments, investment banking, wealth management, and technology initiatives.
• Credit metrics improved, but CRE, consumer runoff, funding costs, and macro uncertainty remain key watch items.
• The bank plans accelerated share repurchases while targeting a lower CET1 range.

Management priorities

• Expand middle-market lending, commercial payments, investment banking, and wealth management.
• Increase technology and AI spending to $1 billion and pursue additional cost savings.
• Hire frontline bankers to support fee growth and broaden commercial pipelines.
• Shift funding from brokered CDs toward client deposits and reduce brokered CD balances near zero by mid-2026.
• Return capital through planned share repurchases while managing CET1 toward a 9.5%-10% target.