Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2863.6%
Neutral1636.4%
Bearish00.0%
Johnson Controls International plc · JCI · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2025
Johnson Controls: Growth, backlog and raised guidance lead Q3 analysis
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient HVAC, data-center cooling, service demand and a record backlog underpin growth, while execution, tariffs, China and portfolio transition risks constrain confidence.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$95.37B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.05
Consensus $1.01
EPS surprise
+4.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.05B
Consensus $5.99B
Revenue surprise
+1.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-7.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.1%
Up to 20 sessions
JCISPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about JCI FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did JCI fall 7.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in JCI's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for JCI after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis reports stronger Q3 execution, a record $14.6 billion backlog, nearly doubled free cash flow, raised full-year EPS guidance, and a more detailed Lean, digitization and AI-enabled operating-system rollout.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $3.65-$3.68 and targeted free-cash-flow conversion above 100%.
Key takeaways
- Q3 organic sales grew 6%, while margin expanded and free cash flow nearly doubled.
- Record $14.6 billion backlog and demand in the Americas and service segments support visibility.
- Lean, AI-enabled process improvements and a customer-centric operating model are central execution priorities.
- The Bosch HVAC divestiture and portfolio review could reshape the business mix.
Management priorities
- Roll out the new business system, including Lean kaizen training and digitization.
- Reduce lead times and increase seller-to-customer interaction time.
- Complete the Residential and Light Commercial HVAC sale to Bosch while advancing portfolio review.
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$157.44Current
$65Low
$115.09Average
$190High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 20, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 12, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 31, 2024 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 4, 2022 |
| OTR Global | Positive | Mixed | Upgrade | Apr 27, 2021 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2020 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jan 9, 2020 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 21, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Nov 15, 2017 |
| Vertical Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2017 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 8, 2016 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 2, 2015 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2015 |
| Ascendiant Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 23, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2014 |
| Lazard | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 13, 2013 |
| Credit Agricole | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 1, 2012 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 1, 2012 |
| Needham | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 1, 2012 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2012 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2012 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2012 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2012 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 7, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $157.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $145.36 | +18.1% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $138.46 | +14.3% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $152.36 | +20.7% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $175 | $154.55 | +11.2% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $147.75 | +11.8% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $175 | $144.05 | +11.2% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $141.99 | +8.6% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Amit Mehrotra | $180 | $141.26 | +14.3% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $139.12 | -2.2% | May 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $144 | $143.14 | -8.5% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $140 | $134.99 | -11.1% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $140 | $131.97 | -11.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $131.39 | -17.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $129.49 | -2.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $129.49 | -16.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $129.49 | -13.6% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $111.51 | -17.4% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Scott Davis | $148 | $113.95 | -6.0% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $113.95 | -20.6% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $122.25 | -9.8% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Amit Mehrotra | $124 | $123 | -21.2% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $90 | $95.28 | -42.8% | May 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joe O’Dea | $100 | $91.68 | -36.5% | May 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $80.07 | -46.0% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joesph O'Dea | $92 | $79.17 | -41.6% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $88 | $79.25 | -44.1% | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $80 | $68.6 | -49.2% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $85 | $69.38 | -46.0% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | $69 | $67.82 | -56.2% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $61 | $71.03 | -61.3% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $62 | $68.19 | -60.6% | Jun 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $61 | $65.13 | -61.3% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $67 | $56.08 | -57.4% | Dec 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $73 | $58.51 | -53.6% | May 5, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $66.36 | -54.3% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $65.02 | -54.3% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $65.65 | -52.4% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $65.77 | -56.8% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $66.98 | -53.0% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $67.63 | -55.5% | Dec 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $54.89 | -60.6% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $55.53 | -61.3% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $55.1 | -60.0% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $65 | $50.34 | -58.7% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $47.03 | -58.7% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $47.67 | -61.9% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $47.82 | -65.7% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $48.44 | -61.9% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $47.44 | -60.6% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $59 | $55 | -62.5% | Jun 7, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $50.89 | -58.7% | May 24, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $54.59 | -61.3% | May 5, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | John Walsh | $73 | $54.83 | -53.6% | May 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $54.84 | -54.9% | May 5, 2022 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $80 | $66.2 | -49.2% | Apr 5, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole DeBlase | $80 | $68.88 | -49.2% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $90 | $73.39 | -42.8% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $86 | $80.87 | -45.4% | Dec 31, 2021 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $92 | $77.03 | -41.6% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Andrew Kaplowitz | $81 | $73.75 | -48.6% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $86 | $74.62 | -45.4% | Sep 9, 2021 |
| HSBC | Puneet Garg | $66 | $70.41 | -58.1% | Aug 4, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $83 | $69.75 | -47.3% | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Joe Ritchie | $83 | $67.72 | -47.3% | Jun 30, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $72 | $63.75 | -54.3% | May 6, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationJohnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company designs, manufactures, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and digital solutions. It also provides energy solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven building solutions. It sells its products and services to commercial, residential security, institutional, industrial, data center, marine, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorporated in 1885 and is based in Cork, Ireland.
Historical context
All JCI earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPM RPM International Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | +3.2% | RPM posts record quarter, but input costs narrow the outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
Get the JCI recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T21:30:44.453211+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T21:30:44.450495+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.