Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1657.2%
Neutral621.4%
Bearish621.4%
International Paper Company · IP · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
International Paper: Cost Actions Lead, Demand Remains Soft
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive operating thesis: cost reductions, commercial execution, and packaging investments may improve earnings, but soft demand and execution risk mean the case is not dependent on growth alone.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$16.93B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.43
Consensus $0.47
EPS surprise
-191.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.22B
Consensus $6.73B
Revenue surprise
-7.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-12.7%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-11.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.2%
Up to 20 sessions
IPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IP FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did IP fall 12.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in IP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for IP after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The supplied current-quarter analysis emphasizes a shift toward adjusted EBITDA as the primary forward-looking metric, stronger year-to-date profitability, a planned GCF sale with proceeds directed toward debt reduction and Packaging Solutions, and the Riverdale conversion as a major capital project. The cost-out and European-restructuring agenda remains active from the prior quarter.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management continued to frame the outlook around cost actions, commercial execution, and expected incremental adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
Key takeaways
- Management’s supplied analysis describes strong earnings momentum, with adjusted EBITDA up 40% year to date and margin expansion.
- North American mill closures and overhead reductions are central to the margin-improvement case, while Lighthouse expansion supports execution in EMEA.
- Demand conditions remain soft in North America and EMEA, so the thesis depends on cost reduction, pricing, market-share gains, and project execution.
- The supplied analysis highlights the GCF sale, Riverdale conversion, and European restructuring as important milestones.
Management priorities
- Execute mill closures, overhead streamlining, and the Lighthouse rollout.
- Capture commercial wins, pricing improvements, and North American box market-share gains.
- Complete the Riverdale lightweight-containerboard conversion and advance sustainable-packaging investments.
- Progress the GCF sale and European restructuring, subject to regulatory and works-council processes.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$31.97Current
$40Low
$53.54Average
$80High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 23, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 1, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 14, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2015 |
| Dundee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 20, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $31.97. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $41.32 | +43.9% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $52 | $41.25 | +62.7% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.29 | +47.0% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.15 | +43.9% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $43.15 | +53.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hillary Cacanando | $50 | $43.15 | +56.4% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $42.41 | +90.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $46 | $37.36 | +43.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.67 | +31.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.76 | +22.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $48 | $36.47 | +50.1% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $36.57 | +25.1% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $39.53 | +87.7% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $48 | $42.61 | +50.1% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $44 | $40.32 | +37.6% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $39 | +68.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $40 | $39 | +25.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $51 | $42.39 | +59.5% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $40.52 | +56.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $55 | $39.06 | +72.0% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $37.67 | +37.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $57 | $38.63 | +78.3% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $38.63 | +12.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $57.8 | $46.64 | +80.8% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.08 | +65.8% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $44 | $45.88 | +37.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.96 | +72.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $47.72 | +84.5% | May 28, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $60 | $44.27 | +87.7% | May 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $66 | $55.77 | +106.4% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $57 | $48.08 | +78.3% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $52 | $46.12 | +62.7% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $56 | $45.59 | +75.2% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $45 | $46.28 | +40.8% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $52 | $43.25 | +62.7% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $52 | $44.04 | +62.7% | May 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $41 | $44.4 | +28.2% | May 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $57 | $42.1 | +78.3% | May 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $43 | $35.8 | +34.5% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $43 | $34.34 | +34.5% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Joseph Altobello | $70 | $34.49 | +119.0% | Aug 15, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $39 | $33.01 | +22.0% | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $35 | $32.87 | +9.5% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.7 | +25.1% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $47 | $41.92 | +47.0% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $47.95 | +81.4% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $56 | $47.18 | +75.2% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Cleveland Rueckert | $43 | $47.83 | +34.5% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| BNP Paribas | Justin Jordan | $60 | $51.07 | +87.7% | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $80 | $55.91 | +150.2% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $75 | $58.61 | +134.6% | Jun 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on IP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationInternational Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific Rim, Asia, and various other regions across the Americas. The company's business activities are structured into two principal divisions: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The Industrial Packaging segment is dedicated to producing a diverse range of containerboards, which encompass linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft.…
Historical context
All IP earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the IP recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T11:30:45.199107+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T11:30:45.196619+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.