Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy49 ratings
Bullish2857.1%
Neutral2142.9%
Bearish00.0%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. · HLT · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Hilton: Group demand and conversions support maintained outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view of Hilton's operating trajectory: group demand, fee-per-room growth, conversions, and international brand expansion are supporting growth, while softer China and leisure demand remain important offsets. The maintained outlook provides evidence of resilience, but the case depends on demand holding up and development costs remaining contained.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$73.72B market cap
70quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.61
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $2.72B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+10.8%
Up to 20 sessions
HLTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about HLT FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove HLT's +2.2% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in HLT's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for HLT after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The supplied analysis emphasized 2.5% year-over-year RevPAR growth, adjusted EBITDA above the top of guidance, a development pipeline exceeding 503,000 rooms, and continued conversion and luxury expansion. It also highlighted softer China and leisure trends, while management maintained its full-year outlook.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year RevPAR guidance of flat to +2% and a net unit growth target of 6–7%.
Key takeaways
- Q1 system-wide RevPAR increased 2.5% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA exceeded the top of guidance.
- The development pipeline exceeded 503,000 rooms, with conversions representing about 40% of new openings.
- Group bookings and fee-per-room growth were strengths; leisure and China demand were softer.
- Management continued to emphasize an asset-light model, conversions, and luxury and lifestyle expansion.
Management priorities
- Expand through conversions and international development.
- Advance luxury, lifestyle, and focused-service brands.
- Pursue group booking growth and fee-per-room growth.
- Open planned properties and build the development pipeline.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$329.59Current
$135Low
$277.4Average
$379High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 12, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 8, 2024 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 15, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Gordon Haskett | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 26, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 8, 2020 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 30, 2020 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2019 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 5, 2018 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2018 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2018 |
| FBR Capital | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2017 |
| Tigress Financial | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2017 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 5, 2016 |
| JMP Securities | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2016 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2016 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2014 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 23, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $329.59. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $336 | $326.56 | +1.9% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $316 | $308.66 | -4.1% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $363 | $324.99 | +10.1% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $365 | $314.66 | +10.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $368 | $322.43 | +11.7% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $367 | $321.32 | +11.4% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $379 | $328.48 | +15.0% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $320 | $316.56 | -2.9% | May 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $319 | $315.92 | -3.2% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $371 | $323.98 | +12.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $315.74 | -5.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $353 | $323.34 | +7.1% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $365 | $323.34 | +10.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $335.07 | +6.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $333.67 | +4.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $363 | $328.91 | +10.1% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $318 | $321.31 | -3.5% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $315.96 | +9.2% | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $307 | $326.1 | -6.9% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $332.91 | +6.2% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $321 | $325.13 | -2.6% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $373 | $329.82 | +13.2% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $339 | $326.55 | +2.9% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $296.46 | -1.4% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $306 | $301.86 | -7.2% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $309 | $301.86 | -6.2% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $287.73 | -7.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $317 | $280.05 | -3.8% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $271.08 | -23.2% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $287 | $275.06 | -12.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $275.06 | -22.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $285 | $275.06 | -13.5% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $297 | $271.99 | -9.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $265.96 | -12.3% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $258.23 | -16.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $258.91 | -12.6% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $288 | $266.41 | -12.6% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $273.29 | -9.0% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $286 | $274.34 | -13.2% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $263 | $258.74 | -20.2% | Feb 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $240 | $258.74 | -27.2% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $220 | $233.5 | -33.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $200 | $233.5 | -39.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Duane Pfennigwerth | $240 | $238.81 | -27.2% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $244 | $238.47 | -26.0% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Bellisario | $235 | $237.49 | -28.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $245 | $220.38 | -25.7% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $261 | $217.08 | -20.8% | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Chad Beynon | $208 | $205.07 | -36.9% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $228 | $228.19 | -30.8% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $260 | $228.47 | -21.1% | Jul 16, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $209 | $203.57 | -36.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Chad Beynon | $205 | $203.86 | -37.8% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $185 | $203.98 | -43.9% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Bellisario | $215 | $204.7 | -34.8% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $216 | $198.82 | -34.5% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| HSBC | Meredith Jensen | $254 | $210.37 | -22.9% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Jeffrey Donnelly | $200 | $210.51 | -39.3% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Diane Pfenningwerth | $210 | $210.51 | -36.3% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Bellisario | $210 | $204.66 | -36.3% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $168 | $147.44 | -49.0% | Mar 9, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $145.82 | -49.3% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $147.98 | -55.1% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $136.05 | -57.8% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $138.11 | -55.1% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $140.28 | -55.4% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $141.42 | -48.1% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $140.65 | -81.2% | Nov 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $129.83 | -51.8% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $157 | $132.85 | -52.4% | May 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $145.38 | -56.3% | May 4, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $157.02 | -56.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Dori Kesten | $160 | $150.67 | -51.5% | Feb 26, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Chad Beynon | $138 | $150.41 | -58.1% | Feb 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $135 | $143.39 | -59.0% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Richard Hightower | $155 | $144.52 | -53.0% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $161 | $148.61 | -51.2% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $178 | $155.02 | -46.0% | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Daniel Adam | $142 | $139.59 | -56.9% | Dec 2, 2021 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $139 | $146.04 | -57.8% | Oct 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on HLT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree…
Historical context
All HLT earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-15T00:03:42.498162+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T22:00:42.862910+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T22:00:42.860142+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.