Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish1144.0%
Neutral1248.0%
Bearish28.0%
Franco-Nevada Corporation · FNV · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Franco-Nevada Keeps 2026 Guidance as GEOs Rise 18%
Q2 supports a constructive but commodity-sensitive picture: volume growth, record results and a 91.2% adjusted EBITDA margin strengthen the operating case, while price exposure, NPIs, Cobre Panama and deal timing remain key tests.
Why did FNV fall 2.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?
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Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$51.29B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.81
Consensus $1.95
EPS surprise
-7.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$580.9M
Consensus $616.7M
Revenue surprise
-5.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+10.5%
Up to 20 sessions
FNVSPY benchmark
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Why did FNV fall 2.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in FNV's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for FNV after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
GEO volume grew 18% year over year, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 91.2%, available capital reached $4.3 billion, and Cobre Panama's environmental audit reported 87.7% compliance with no major findings. Guidance was maintained.
Guidance delta
2026 guidance was maintained; management said GEO volume was tracking in the upper half of the range.
Key takeaways
- GEO volume grew 18% year over year, putting performance in the upper half of 2026 guidance.
- Revenue, adjusted EBITDA and net income reached six-month records.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 91.2% as commodity prices supported royalty revenue.
- Available capital stood at $4.3 billion, supporting continued acquisition activity.
- Cobre Panama's environmental audit reported 87.7% compliance with no major findings, while restart fiscal terms remain unsettled.
Management priorities
- Pursue larger royalty and streaming transactions, potentially ranging from $100 million to $1 billion.
- Support second-half contributions from Candelaria, Tocantinzinho, Cote and Valentine.
- Target 9,000–10,000 GEOs from Cobre Panama stockpile processing as it begins.
- Maintain dividends while evaluating a potential incremental increase if cash inflows occur.
- Continue community engagement and scholarship programs while monitoring ESG performance.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$251.63Current
$139Low
$238.74Average
$310High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 20, 2026 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2026 |
| TD Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 18, 2022 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 4, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 17, 2020 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 8, 2019 |
| GMP Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 23, 2019 |
| Dundee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| Desjardins | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2016 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| National Bank FInancial | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 12, 2016 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | May 11, 2016 |
| Clarksons Platou | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 16, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 14, 2015 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 29, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $251.63. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $274 | $202.32 | +8.9% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $207.5 | +13.3% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $217.58 | -2.6% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $280 | $204.5 | +11.3% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| TD Securities | Analyst unavailable | $291 | $222.74 | +15.6% | May 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $237.11 | +15.2% | May 14, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Heiko Ihle | $305 | $265.72 | +21.2% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $250.65 | +13.3% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $242.45 | +23.2% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $265.05 | +12.5% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Josh Wolfson | $250 | $202.93 | -0.6% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $203.17 | -9.4% | Dec 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $208.1 | +7.3% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $185.14 | -16.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $225 | $191.21 | -10.6% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $260 | $209.43 | +3.3% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $234 | $203.78 | -7.0% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $218 | $214.17 | -13.4% | Sep 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Daniel Major | $250 | $208.58 | -0.6% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Brian MacArthur | $186 | $168.5 | -26.1% | May 28, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $145.74 | -40.4% | Mar 11, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Derick Ma | $152 | $145.74 | -39.6% | Mar 11, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lawson Winder | $139 | $124.46 | -44.8% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Tanya Jakusconek | $141 | $122.71 | -44.0% | May 23, 2024 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $133.79 | -42.4% | Aug 11, 2022 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $126 | -42.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $156.09 | -28.5% | May 5, 2022 |
| Industrial Alliance Securities | Puneet Singh | $187 | $130.35 | -25.7% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Adam Josephson | $154.38 | $134.33 | -38.6% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| Desjardins | John Sclodnick | $159.15 | $150.21 | -36.8% | May 20, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationFranco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa. It operates through Precious Metals, Other Mining and Energy segments. The company manages its portfolio with a focus on precious metals, such as gold, silver, and platinum group metals; and engages in the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through a third-party marketing agent. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Historical context
All FNV earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAG Iamgold Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +16.7% | +4.6% | IAMGOLD keeps FY2026 guidance on track as Côté improvements support outlook |
| APD Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | 0.0% | -2.9% | Air Products closes FY2026 with growth, larger backlog and FY2027 plans |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.0% | +3.6% | Albemarle’s Q3 gains reflect firmer lithium pricing and cost discipline |
| MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +43.7% | -3.3% | ArcelorMittal sees stronger European shipments, with fuller TRQ benefits ahead |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.9% | -14.9% | Advanced Drainage Systems lowers revenue outlook as growth moderates |
| JHX James Hardie Industries plc | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.5% | -2.9% | James Hardie grows sales, expands margins, maintains FY2027 guidance |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
- STEFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026+9.7% EPS+2.5% move
- IRMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+4.6% EPS-11.1% move
- AFRMFY2027 Q1 · November 5, 2026+23.8% EPS+1.9% move
Missed on EPS
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
- UHALFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026-15.4% EPS-3.2% move
- LAMRFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-3.6% EPS-0.8% move
- CMIFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-6.0% EPS-4.9% move
Get the FNV recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-12T19:16:04.351837+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-16T01:23:13.900088+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T17:20:56.781809+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T17:20:56.778752+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.