Expedia Group, Inc. · EXPE · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Expedia: Strong Q4 Growth, Maintained Outlook, Execution Risks

The current analysis supports a constructive operating narrative: strong Q4 growth, international demand, advertising expansion and AI initiatives provide multiple growth drivers. The case remains conditional on sustaining Vrbo and Hotels.com momentum, managing FX and executing new products while preserving margins.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $31.40B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $2.06
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $3.07B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +17.3% Event window
SPY move -0.9% Same window
Abnormal move +18.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -12.7% Up to 20 sessions
EXPESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Versus the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis describes stronger Q4 execution, with double-digit growth across bookings, revenue and EBITDA margins. International demand and advertising remained key drivers, while management maintained its guidance sentiment and added detail on AI, capital allocation and supply expansion.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained. The analysis cites 2025 assumptions of modest 4–6% bookings and revenue growth, with a two-point foreign-exchange headwind.

Key takeaways

  • The analysis describes double-digit Q4 growth in bookings, revenue and EBITDA margins.
  • International demand, especially in APAC and Europe, outpaced U.S. growth.
  • Advertising revenue grew 32% year over year and represented 5% of total revenue.
  • Management emphasized AI, supply improvements, package growth and international expansion.

Management priorities

  • Deploy AI across traveler experience, partner acquisition and operations.
  • Expand international markets and package products.
  • Improve Vrbo and Hotels.com supply, product features and loyalty integration.
  • Continue buybacks and the reinstated dividend while maintaining disciplined capex.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
EXPE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.67 Q4 '23 actual $1.72, beat Q1 '24 estimate $-0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.21, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3.06 Q2 '24 actual $3.51, beat Q3 '24 estimate $6.04 Q3 '24 actual $6.13, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.97 Q2 '25 actual $4.24, beat Q3 '25 estimate $6.97 Q3 '25 actual $7.57, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3.35 Q4 '25 actual $3.78, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.41 Q1 '26 actual $1.96, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5.22 Q2 '26 actual $5.76, beat Q3 '26 estimate $8.83 Q4 '26 estimate $4.37 Q1 '27 estimate $2.31
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold75 ratings
Bullish3546.7%
Neutral3850.7%
Bearish22.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$272.46Current
$116Low
$243.08Average
$430High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 7, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 6, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 30, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 24, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 20, 2026
Show 70 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $272.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoKen Gawrelski$275$260.07 +0.9%Oct 7, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$288$266.33 +5.7%Sep 30, 2026
Morgan StanleyMatthew Cost$235$293.08 -13.7%Sep 16, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$400$339.12 +46.8%Aug 25, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$430$331.15 +57.8%Aug 24, 2026
See 131 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services.…

Historical context

All EXPE earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-23T00:02:36.799981+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T15:20:44.280927+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T15:20:44.278226+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.