Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1781.0%
Neutral419.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Expand Energy Corporation · EXE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Expand Energy Q1 FY2026: Revenue Beats by 25% on LNG and AI-Power Demand
Expand Energy's first quarter of fiscal 2026 reinforced the structural-demand thesis for U.S. natural gas. Revenue of $4.40 billion exceeded the $3.53 billion consensus by roughly 25%, and EPS of $3.83 beat the $3.69 estimate by about 4%. Management generated $1.7 billion in free cash flow, paid down $1.3 billion in gross debt, and returned $290 million to shareholders. The demand narrative is anchored in three structural drivers: AI-driven electricity demand, reshoring of heavy industry, and global LNG expansion. A new 1.15 million-ton-per-year off-take SPA with Delfin LNG and encouraging early results from the first Western Haynesville well add incremental optionality. The stock initially rallied roughly 4% on the print but subsequently drifted lower by about 7%, suggesting the market is weighing the strength of the quarter against near-term gas-price volatility and the unresolved…
Reported After market closeNASDAQEnergy
$22.12B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.83
Consensus $3.69
EPS surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.40B
Consensus $3.53B
Revenue surprise
+24.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.3%
Up to 20 sessions
EXESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about EXE FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did EXE rise 4.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in EXE's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for EXE after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Revenue of $4.40B beat the $3.53B consensus by approximately 25% (beat) | EPS of $3.83 beat the $3.69 estimate by roughly 4% (beat) | Free cash flow of $1.7B funded $1.3B in debt reduction and $290M in shareholder returns (positive) | Signed 1.15 Mt/yr off-take SPA with Delfin LNG including gas-supply-manager role (positive) | First Western Haynesville well showed encouraging cost-competitive early results (positive) | Full-year production and capex guidance unchanged with Q1-to-Q2 capex timing shift (maintained) | CEO search ongoing; new CFO Marcel Teunissen brings integrated gas expertise (neutral)
Guidance delta
maintained
Key takeaways
- Revenue beat of roughly 25% reflects strong natural gas pricing and execution
- $1.7B free cash flow enabled simultaneous debt reduction and shareholder returns
- AI electricity, reshoring, and LNG demand underpin confidence in premium gas markets
- Delfin LNG off-take agreement expands commercial reach into LNG export markets
- Western Haynesville well results are early but cost-competitive
Management priorities
- Expand LNG portfolio with long-term off-take and supply-manager agreements
- Drill additional Western Haynesville wells to extend low-cost inventory runway
- Increase term sales and firm transportation to premium Gulf Coast and Southeast markets
- Continue debt reduction while rebalancing free cash flow toward buybacks and dividends
- Finalize permanent CEO appointment and maintain execution momentum
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$90.98Current
$87Low
$124.68Average
$146High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Johnson Rice | Accumulate | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2026 | |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 14, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $90.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $92.67 | +28.6% | Oct 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $91.11 | +31.9% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $91.11 | +22.0% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $86.43 | +51.7% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $141 | $85.4 | +55.0% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $85.39 | +31.9% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Bob Brackett | $127 | $85.52 | +39.6% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $122 | $85.97 | +34.1% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $85.96 | +49.5% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $129 | $94.83 | +41.8% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Deckelbaum | $135 | $96.62 | +48.4% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $147 | $98.19 | +61.6% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $94.66 | +24.2% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $96.4 | +41.8% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Johnson Rice | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $93.62 | +37.4% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $94.78 | +17.6% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $124 | $91.24 | +36.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $93.04 | +2.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $114 | $91.96 | +25.3% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $86.74 | +28.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $127 | $87.1 | +39.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $88.47 | +44.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $97.94 | +20.9% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $97.08 | +52.8% | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $99.5 | +46.2% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $113.5 | +55.0% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $106.04 | +48.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $108.06 | +35.2% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $125 | $108.06 | +37.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $141 | $99.52 | +55.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $102.75 | +60.5% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $108.82 | +50.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $109.85 | +38.5% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $99.88 | +53.9% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $150 | $105.61 | +64.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $106.66 | +57.2% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $109.77 | +58.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $113.82 | +69.3% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $142 | $114.31 | +56.1% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $100.41 | +45.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $135 | $100.33 | +48.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $131 | $101.76 | +44.0% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $106.84 | +64.9% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $107.73 | +49.5% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $136 | $95.58 | +49.5% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $104.21 | +37.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $135 | $116.46 | +48.4% | Jun 14, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $135 | $116.46 | +48.4% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $118 | $104.23 | +29.7% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $96.24 | +11.0% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $98.88 | +28.6% | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $116 | $106 | +27.5% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $136 | $107.35 | +49.5% | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $146 | $99.78 | +60.5% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Paul Diamond | $100 | $88.7 | +9.9% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $86 | $85.73 | -5.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $110 | $87.36 | +20.9% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $85 | $86.46 | -6.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Williams Trading | Gabriele Sorbara | $87 | $86.62 | -4.4% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $105 | $87.57 | +15.4% | Oct 11, 2024 |
Track every rating change on EXE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationExpand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of properties to produce crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquid hydrocarbons from subterranean geological formations. The company maintains significant interests in key natural gas production areas, specifically within Pennsylvania's northern Appalachian Basin (Marcellus Shale) and northwestern Louisiana (Haynesville/Bossier Shales). As of December 31, 2023, its asset base featured a diverse collection of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas properties, including ownership stakes in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Established in 1989 and based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation before officially adopting the Expand Energy Corporation name in October 2024.
Historical context
All EXE earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTM DT Midstream, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +3.7% | DT Midstream raises guidance while trimming growth capital |
| NXT Nextpower Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +19.1% | +3.3% | Nextpower posts record Q2 and raises FY2027 outlook |
| PSX Phillips 66 | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.0% | +1.9% | Phillips 66 posts strong Q3 as utilization and midstream growth support outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- GENFY2027 Q2 · October 28, 2026+2.9% EPS+11.2% move
- KLACFY2027 Q1 · October 28, 2026+2.5% EPS+7.3% move
- SANFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 20260.0% EPS-6.3% move
- FFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+19.5% EPS+1.4% move
- EQIXFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+20.0% EPS+5.4% move
- EBAYFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+7.1% EPS+0.2% move
Missed on EPS
- AWKFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-2.0% EPS+1.1% move
- CPFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-3.2% EPS-1.9% move
- LIIFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS-10.6% move
- EXRFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-1.7% EPS+0.1% move
- NOWFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-2.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CMGFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS+2.7% move
Get the EXE recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T00:53:31.402754+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T00:53:31.399946+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.