Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy19 ratings
Bullish1578.9%
Neutral421.1%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Expand Energy Corporation · EXE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Expand Energy Q1 FY2026: Revenue Beats by 25% on LNG and AI-Power Demand
Expand Energy's first quarter of fiscal 2026 reinforced the structural-demand thesis for U.S. natural gas. Revenue of $4.40 billion exceeded the $3.53 billion consensus by roughly 25%, and EPS of $3.83 beat the $3.69 estimate by about 4%. Management generated $1.7 billion in free cash flow, paid down $1.3 billion in gross debt, and returned $290 million to shareholders. The demand narrative is anchored in three structural drivers: AI-driven electricity demand, reshoring of heavy industry, and global LNG expansion. A new 1.15 million-ton-per-year off-take SPA with Delfin LNG and encouraging early results from the first Western Haynesville well add incremental optionality. The stock initially rallied roughly 4% on the print but subsequently drifted lower by about 7%, suggesting the market is weighing the strength of the quarter against near-term gas-price volatility and the unresolved…
Reported After market closeNASDAQEnergy
$22.12B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationExpand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of properties to produce crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquid hydrocarbons from subterranean geological formations. The company maintains significant interests in key natural gas production areas, specifically within Pennsylvania's northern Appalachian Basin (Marcellus Shale) and northwestern Louisiana (Haynesville/Bossier Shales). As of December 31, 2023, its asset base featured a diverse collection of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas properties, including ownership stakes in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Established in 1989 and based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation before officially adopting the Expand Energy Corporation name in October 2024.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.83
Consensus $4
EPS surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.40B
Consensus $3.53B
Revenue surprise
+24.6%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$92.42Current
$87Low
$125.86Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | May 26, 2026 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2026 | |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 14, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $92.42. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $93.04 | +0.6% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $114 | $91.96 | +23.3% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $86.74 | +26.6% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $127 | $87.1 | +37.4% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $88.47 | +41.7% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $97.94 | +19.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $97.08 | +50.4% | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $99.5 | +43.9% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $113.5 | +52.6% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $106.04 | +46.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $108.06 | +33.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $125 | $108.06 | +35.3% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $141 | $99.52 | +52.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $102.75 | +58.0% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $108.82 | +48.2% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $109.85 | +36.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $99.88 | +51.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $150 | $105.61 | +62.3% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $106.66 | +54.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $109.77 | +55.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $113.82 | +66.6% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $142 | $114.31 | +53.6% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $100.41 | +42.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $135 | $100.33 | +46.1% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $131 | $101.76 | +41.7% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $106.84 | +62.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $107.73 | +47.2% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $136 | $95.58 | +47.2% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $104.21 | +35.3% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $135 | $116.46 | +46.1% | Jun 14, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $135 | $116.46 | +46.1% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $118 | $104.23 | +27.7% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $96.24 | +9.3% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $98.88 | +26.6% | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $116 | $106 | +25.5% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $136 | $107.35 | +47.2% | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $146 | $99.78 | +58.0% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Paul Diamond | $100 | $88.7 | +8.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $86 | $85.73 | -6.9% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $110 | $87.36 | +19.0% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $85 | $86.46 | -8.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Williams Trading | Gabriele Sorbara | $87 | $86.62 | -5.9% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $105 | $87.57 | +13.6% | Oct 11, 2024 |
Track every rating change on EXE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.3%
Up to 20 sessions
EXESPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Revenue of $4.40B beat the $3.53B consensus by approximately 25% (beat) | EPS of $3.83 beat the $3.69 estimate by roughly 4% (beat) | Free cash flow of $1.7B funded $1.3B in debt reduction and $290M in shareholder returns (positive) | Signed 1.15 Mt/yr off-take SPA with Delfin LNG including gas-supply-manager role (positive) | First Western Haynesville well showed encouraging cost-competitive early results (positive) | Full-year production and capex guidance unchanged with Q1-to-Q2 capex timing shift (maintained) | CEO search ongoing; new CFO Marcel Teunissen brings integrated gas expertise (neutral)
Guidance delta
maintained
Key takeaways
- Revenue beat of roughly 25% reflects strong natural gas pricing and execution
- $1.7B free cash flow enabled simultaneous debt reduction and shareholder returns
- AI electricity, reshoring, and LNG demand underpin confidence in premium gas markets
- Delfin LNG off-take agreement expands commercial reach into LNG export markets
- Western Haynesville well results are early but cost-competitive
Management priorities
- Expand LNG portfolio with long-term off-take and supply-manager agreements
- Drill additional Western Haynesville wells to extend low-cost inventory runway
- Increase term sales and firm transportation to premium Gulf Coast and Southeast markets
- Continue debt reduction while rebalancing free cash flow toward buybacks and dividends
- Finalize permanent CEO appointment and maintain execution momentum
Related earnings events
EnergySources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T00:53:31.402754+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T00:53:31.399946+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.