Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1781.0%
Neutral419.0%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Expand Energy Corporation · EXE · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Expand Energy pairs lower breakevens with a larger marketing push
The call supports a constructive but conditional view: lower Haynesville breakevens, production flexibility and premium-market initiatives may improve resilience, but the realization target remains a forward plan and depends on execution, gas prices and leadership succession.
Reported After market closeNASDAQEnergy
$19.49B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.00
Consensus $1.87
EPS surprise
+7.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.27B
Consensus $2.94B
Revenue surprise
+11.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-3.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.0%
Up to 20 sessions
EXESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about EXE FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did EXE fall 3.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in EXE's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for EXE after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The latest analysis emphasized a 15% Haynesville breakeven reduction, a $0.20/MMBtu realization objective, the addition of 3.5 Bcf of owned storage in Q4, relocation of marketing operations to Houston and the start of a CEO search.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance and highlighted flexibility to produce up to 7.75 Bcf/d through improved maintenance-capex efficiency.
Key takeaways
- Management said Haynesville breakeven costs fell 15%.
- The company is targeting a $0.20/MMBtu realization uplift over three to five years through marketing, storage and premium-market exposure.
- Debt reduction, shareholder returns and production flexibility remained priorities.
- A new CEO search is underway, with management citing a six-to-nine-month timeline.
Management priorities
- Expand Houston-based marketing operations and commercial capabilities
- Use owned storage and premium-market contracts to improve gas realizations
- Continue debt paydown and maintain flexible share repurchases
- Deploy Gen 3 completion designs and evaluate West Virginia Utica development
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$84.18Previous close
$87Low
$126.38Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Johnson Rice | Accumulate | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 2, 2026 | |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 14, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $84.18. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $129 | $94.83 | +53.2% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | David Deckelbaum | $135 | $96.62 | +60.4% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $147 | $98.19 | +74.6% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $94.66 | +34.2% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $129 | $96.4 | +53.2% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Johnson Rice | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $93.62 | +48.5% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $94.78 | +27.1% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $124 | $91.24 | +47.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $93.04 | +10.5% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $114 | $91.96 | +35.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $86.74 | +39.0% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $127 | $87.1 | +50.9% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $88.47 | +55.6% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $97.94 | +30.7% | May 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $97.08 | +65.1% | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $133 | $99.5 | +58.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $141 | $113.5 | +67.5% | Mar 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $106.04 | +60.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $108.06 | +46.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $125 | $108.06 | +48.5% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $141 | $99.52 | +67.5% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $102.75 | +73.4% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $108.82 | +62.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $109.85 | +49.7% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $99.88 | +66.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $150 | $105.61 | +78.2% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $106.66 | +69.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $109.77 | +71.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $113.82 | +82.9% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $142 | $114.31 | +68.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $100.41 | +56.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $135 | $100.33 | +60.4% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $131 | $101.76 | +55.6% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $106.84 | +78.2% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $107.73 | +61.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $136 | $95.58 | +61.6% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $104.21 | +48.5% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $135 | $116.46 | +60.4% | Jun 14, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $135 | $116.46 | +60.4% | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $118 | $104.23 | +40.2% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $101 | $96.24 | +20.0% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $98.88 | +39.0% | Feb 28, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $116 | $106 | +37.8% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $136 | $107.35 | +61.6% | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $146 | $99.78 | +73.4% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Paul Diamond | $100 | $88.7 | +18.8% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $86 | $85.73 | +2.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $110 | $87.36 | +30.7% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $85 | $86.46 | +1.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Williams Trading | Gabriele Sorbara | $87 | $86.62 | +3.3% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $105 | $87.57 | +24.7% | Oct 11, 2024 |
Track every rating change on EXE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationExpand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development of properties to produce crude oil, natural gas, and associated liquid hydrocarbons from subterranean geological formations. The company maintains significant interests in key natural gas production areas, specifically within Pennsylvania's northern Appalachian Basin (Marcellus Shale) and northwestern Louisiana (Haynesville/Bossier Shales). As of December 31, 2023, its asset base featured a diverse collection of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas properties, including ownership stakes in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Established in 1989 and based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, the corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation before officially adopting the Expand Energy Corporation name in October 2024.
Historical context
All EXE earningsLatest beats and misses
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Get the EXE recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T09:26:10.064107+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T09:26:10.061521+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.