Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1571.4%
Neutral314.3%
Bearish314.3%
Embraer S.A. · EMBJ · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Embraer’s record Q3 and raised outlook meet a sharp EPS miss
The quarter shows broad operating momentum: management described record revenue and backlog, strong margins in Executive Aviation and Services & Support, and raised 2026 revenue and free-cash-flow guidance. The substantial EPS shortfall against consensus complicates that picture; execution on cash conversion, Q4 margins and supply constraints will matter to whether growth translates into earnings quality.
Why did EMBJ rise 7.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$15.14B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.41
Consensus $0.81
EPS surprise
-49.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.35B
Consensus $2.20B
Revenue surprise
+6.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+7.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+7.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
EMBJSPY benchmark
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Why did EMBJ rise 7.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in EMBJ's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for EMBJ after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter’s emphasis on record results and higher adjusted EBIT-margin guidance, management now reports another record quarter and higher 2026 revenue and free-cash-flow guidance. The current call also highlights planned capacity investment, including higher capex in 2027–28, and puts Q4 margin and cash-flow conversion more visibly in focus.
Guidance delta
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance and free-cash-flow guidance. The supplied analysis does not provide the prior and revised ranges, so this summary does not quantify the change.
Key takeaways
- Record Q3 revenue and backlog, with strength across Commercial, Executive, Defense and Services businesses.
- Management raised 2026 revenue and free-cash-flow guidance; the analysis does not specify the previous or revised ranges.
- EPS was materially below consensus despite revenue exceeding consensus.
- Executive Aviation and Services & Support margins were strong, but analysts questioned how durable those levels are.
- Management cited supply constraints and FX pressure; Q4 margin outlook and cash conversion remain watch points.
Management priorities
- Expand Phenom and Praetor production capacity toward the stated 2028 unit target.
- Advance KC-390 local assembly in India and pursue additional defense opportunities.
- Continue Eve eVTOL certification and transition-flight work.
- Invest in Services & Support facilities and capabilities, including Dallas and OGMA.
- Study future commercial and executive aircraft families.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$82.43Current
$13Low
$46.62Average
$81High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2025 |
| UBS | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 14, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2021 |
| Bradesco Corretora | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 26, 2018 |
| Bradesco | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 26, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2018 |
| Santander | Underperform | Hold | Downgrade | Oct 30, 2017 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2017 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 1, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 18, 2016 |
| Itau BBA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 16, 2015 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $82.43. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $56.68 | -1.7% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $57.12 | -21.1% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $62.02 | -16.3% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.38 | -18.7% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $54.83 | -22.4% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| HSBC | Cenk Orcan | $57 | $45.96 | -30.9% | Jun 4, 2025 |
| UBS | Alberto Valerio | $39 | $44.67 | -52.7% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| HSBC | Cenk Orcan | $36 | $35.1 | -56.3% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| UBS | Alberto Valerio | $28.5 | $27.04 | -65.4% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $27 | $25.07 | -67.2% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Josh Milberg | $40 | $23.48 | -51.5% | Mar 14, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $11.27 | -83.0% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $13.25 | $5.12 | -83.9% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $11.53 | -84.2% | Apr 26, 2022 |
Track every rating change on EMBJ the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationEmbraer SA engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and its parts for commercial, defense, and executive aviation sectors. It operates through the following segments: Commercial Aviation, Defense and Security, Executive Jet Business, Service & Support and Others. The Commercial Aviation segment is involved in the development, production, and sale of commercial jets; and the provision of support services to regional aviation and aircraft leasing.…
Historical context
All EMBJ earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.9% | +0.5% | TransDigm closes FY2026 with broad growth and sets a higher-investment FY2027 outlook |
| RKLB Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -79.5% | -1.0% | Rocket Lab Q3: Revenue Beat, EPS Loss Wider Than Expected |
| CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +67.1% | +10.9% | CNH sharpens agriculture focus as margins improve and construction JV advances |
| FERG Ferguson Enterprises Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.6% | +11.2% | Ferguson raises FY2026 outlook as industrial and HVAC sales accelerate |
| RBA RB Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.0% | +2.4% | RB Global raises FY2026 outlook as Q3 GTV and adjusted EBITDA grow |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- VGFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+92.7% EPS+1.7% move
- TDGFY2026 Q4 · November 10, 2026+1.9% EPS+0.5% move
- ONONFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+39.9% EPS-7.5% move
- CRWVFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 20260.0% EPS-0.5% move
- OXYFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+30.8% EPS+2.0% move
- MGREFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+8.1% EPS+0.6% move
Missed on EPS
- VODFY2027 Q2 · November 10, 2026-72.8% EPS-1.2% move
- SEFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-5.1% EPS-1.5% move
- BAPFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-2.6% EPS+3.3% move
- JBSFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-28.6% EPS-5.5% move
- CIBFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-10.1% EPS-4.0% move
- ASTSFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-8.9% EPS-2.3% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-10T22:12:33.575168+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-11T01:23:13.633975+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-11T11:00:49.544863+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-11T11:00:49.542059+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.