The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · EL · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q1 2025

Estée Lauder shifts from stabilization to a deeper restructuring and digital reset

The supplied analysis provides partial support for a recovery case: management is investing in digital channels, innovation, emerging markets and AI-enabled efficiency while pursuing cost savings. The evidence against a near-term resolution is continued sales weakness in China and travel retail, expected further pressure in the next quarter, and execution and restructuring risks; resilient demand is not yet established in the supplied analysis.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive $36.18B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.31
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $3.98B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -16.1% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -16.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +3.5% Up to 20 sessions
ELSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management has broadened the response from PRGP execution and channel expansion to the more comprehensive Beauty Reimagined plan, with deeper organizational simplification, larger restructuring ambitions, expanded AI use and continued consumer-facing investment. The core demand challenge remains concentrated in China and travel retail, while guidance sentiment is described as maintained rather than lowered.

Guidance delta

Maintained in the current analysis; the outlook still anticipates further sales pressure in the next quarter.

Key takeaways

  • The current analysis describes continued organic sales pressure, led by China and travel retail, with additional weakness across parts of Asia.
  • Management is pairing consumer-facing investment and digital-channel expansion with a broader restructuring and organizational simplification plan.
  • AI-enabled forecasting, supply-chain work and faster product innovation are presented as operating tools, while China launches and emerging markets are intended to support recovery.
  • The central test is whether cost savings and channel gains can offset near-term volume declines and restore margins.

Management priorities

  • Execute the Beauty Reimagined plan and complete the restructuring program.
  • Redirect consumer-facing investment toward higher-growth digital channels, travel retail and emerging markets.
  • Expand AI across forecasting, supply chain and marketing while accelerating product launches and innovation.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
EL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.55 Q2 '24 actual $0.88, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.49 Q3 '24 actual $0.97, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.27 Q4 '24 actual $0.64, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.09 Q1 '25 actual $0.14, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.09 Q4 '25 actual $0.09, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.18 Q1 '26 actual $0.32, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.83 Q2 '26 actual $0.89, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.65 Q3 '26 actual $0.91, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.32 Q4 '26 actual $0.39, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.51 Q2 '27 estimate $1.17 Q3 '27 estimate $1.05
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2044.4%
Neutral2146.7%
Bearish48.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$100.04Current
$60Low
$136.54Average
$360High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Barclays Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeOct 5, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 20, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Market Perform Market PerformMaintainAug 20, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainAug 20, 2026
Show 40 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $100.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BarclaysLauren Lieberman$108$91.97 +8.0%Oct 5, 2026
Berenberg BankFulvio Cazzol$92$104.1 -8.0%Aug 25, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryAnalyst unavailable$108$97.72 +8.0%Aug 20, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$117$97.48 +17.0%Aug 20, 2026
JefferiesSydney Wagner$100$97.1 -0.0%Aug 20, 2026
See 86 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a global entity dedicated to the development, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of premium beauty and personal care items worldwide. Its extensive product catalog encompasses numerous offerings across four primary categories. For skin care, it provides moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body treatments, exfoliants, acne and oil control solutions, facial masks, specialized cleansing devices, and sun protection. In makeup, consumers can find lipsticks, glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, nail polishes, powders, compacts, brushes, and various other cosmetic tools. The fragrance segment includes eau de parfum sprays, colognes, scented lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-21T00:01:13.267231+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T01:30:46.729342+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T01:30:46.726305+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.