Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish2044.4%
Neutral2146.7%
Bearish48.9%
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · EL · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2025
Estée Lauder: Margin Progress Offsets a Continuing Sales Reset
The evidence points to an operational repair story rather than a confirmed growth recovery: margin expansion, share gains, digital investment, and restructuring progress support the case, while declining organic sales, travel-retail weakness, and tariff uncertainty argue for caution.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$35.46B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.30
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $3.52B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+13.7%
Up to 20 sessions
ELSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about EL FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove EL's -1.8% move after FY2025 Q3 earnings?What changed in EL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for EL after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shows stronger margin and restructuring execution alongside continued top-line pressure. Compared with the prior quarter, management still emphasized digital expansion, product launches, regional capacity, and cost reduction, but the recovery case remains dependent on resolving tariff uncertainty and improving consumer conditions.
Guidance delta
FY2025 guidance was maintained; the FY2026 growth outlook remains conditional rather than established.
Key takeaways
- Management paired a 9% organic sales decline with roughly 300 basis points of gross-margin expansion.
- Share gains, digital-channel investment, and PRGP restructuring are the main elements of the recovery plan.
- Travel retail remains a weakness, while tariff uncertainty and consumer sentiment limit visibility.
- The current analysis supports operational progress, but not yet a clean return to growth.
Management priorities
- Execute PRGP cost-reduction and organizational changes.
- Invest in product launches, digital channels, and regional supply-chain capacity.
- Reduce exposure to travel retail while rebuilding demand in core markets.
- Use gross-margin and operating-efficiency gains to support a longer-term margin recovery.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$98.05Current
$60Low
$136.54Average
$360High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Rothschild & Co | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 27, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 10, 2025 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2023 |
| Redburn Atlantic | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 15, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 24, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 28, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2019 |
| D.A. Davidson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 2, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 2, 2019 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 20, 2018 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 2, 2017 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2017 |
| CSLA | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 3, 2016 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 3, 2015 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $98.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $108 | $91.97 | +10.1% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Fulvio Cazzol | $92 | $104.1 | -6.2% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $97.72 | +10.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $97.48 | +19.3% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sydney Wagner | $100 | $97.1 | +2.0% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $96.86 | +22.4% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.01 | +17.3% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Cristian Rios | $106 | $98.01 | +8.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Susan Anderson | $90 | $98.01 | -8.2% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $102 | $98.01 | +4.0% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $98.01 | -1.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $98.01 | +6.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $98.01 | +14.2% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $87.03 | -3.1% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $83.2 | -10.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $82.12 | -8.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $83.64 | -18.4% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $86 | $82.75 | -12.3% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $100 | $84.81 | +2.0% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Cristian Rios | $82 | $88.02 | -16.4% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $80.83 | -3.1% | May 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $81.33 | -23.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $85 | $81.7 | -13.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $90 | $82.25 | -8.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $90 | $81.96 | -8.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.3 | -13.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $72 | $74.86 | -26.6% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $111 | $73.29 | +13.2% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $71.44 | -23.5% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| HSBC | Erwan Rambourg | $106 | $99.01 | +8.1% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $96.66 | +7.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $96.66 | +9.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $94 | $96.66 | -4.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $128 | $115.4 | +30.5% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $117.69 | +42.8% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $114.22 | +2.0% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $115.37 | +21.4% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $115.37 | +12.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $107.58 | +13.2% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | $130 | $106.76 | +32.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $125 | $102.46 | +27.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Chris Pitcher | $70 | $93.39 | -28.6% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $96.69 | -7.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $113 | $97.33 | +15.2% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $105 | $96.63 | +7.1% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $102.16 | +2.0% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $87.65 | +17.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Susan Anderson | $85 | $91.2 | -13.3% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $66.08 | -38.8% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $76 | $66.58 | -22.5% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Mark Astrachan | $125 | $87.15 | +27.5% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $98 | $89.26 | -0.1% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| HSBC | Erwan Rambourg | $100 | $90.93 | +2.0% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Ottenstein | $130 | $85.13 | +32.6% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Linda Bolton Weiser | $130 | $92.53 | +32.6% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Korinne Wolfmeyer | $114 | $93.99 | +16.3% | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $105 | $92.85 | +7.1% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $104 | $92.85 | +6.1% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $105 | $92.85 | +7.1% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Andrea Teixeira | $129 | $94.97 | +31.6% | Aug 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Bryan Spillane | $100 | $95.14 | +2.0% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $131 | $99.96 | +33.6% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $117 | $96.9 | +19.3% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $136 | $113.93 | +38.7% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $140 | $132.94 | +42.8% | May 3, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Olivia Tong | $155 | $132.51 | +58.1% | May 2, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $142 | $127.37 | +44.8% | May 2, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $175 | $138.21 | +78.5% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Linda Bolton Weiser | $191 | $138.8 | +94.8% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Korinne Wolfmeyer | $158 | $145.43 | +61.1% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $195 | $162.93 | +98.9% | Aug 16, 2023 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $250 | $205.81 | +155.0% | May 8, 2023 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Susan Anderson | $228 | $222.91 | +132.5% | Nov 16, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $303 | $239.5 | +209.0% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Dara Mohsenian | $320 | $265.1 | +226.4% | Aug 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $289 | $281.62 | +194.7% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Telsey Advisory | Dana Telsey | $377 | $281.75 | +284.5% | Aug 18, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $322 | $249.12 | +228.4% | May 4, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $246.14 | +226.4% | May 4, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $259.28 | +194.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $275.1 | +257.0% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $342 | $314.43 | +248.8% | Feb 7, 2022 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $326 | $312.71 | +232.5% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Bryan Spillane | $330 | $312.71 | +236.6% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $341 | $302.5 | +247.8% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $360 | $302.5 | +267.2% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Christopher Carey | $355 | $302.5 | +262.1% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Korinne Wolfmeyer | $380 | $293.61 | +287.6% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Linda Bolton Weiser | $439 | $339.07 | +347.7% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Olivia Tong | $390 | $337.32 | +297.8% | Nov 2, 2021 |
| Societe Generale | Victoria Nice | $335 | $324.8 | +241.7% | Jul 14, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a global entity dedicated to the development, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of premium beauty and personal care items worldwide. Its extensive product catalog encompasses numerous offerings across four primary categories. For skin care, it provides moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body treatments, exfoliants, acne and oil control solutions, facial masks, specialized cleansing devices, and sun protection. In makeup, consumers can find lipsticks, glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, nail polishes, powders, compacts, brushes, and various other cosmetic tools. The fragrance segment includes eau de parfum sprays, colognes, scented lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps.…
Historical context
All EL earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.2% | +3.7% | PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure |
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.4% | +2.4% | Constellation Brands beats expectations and maintains FY27 EPS guidance |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +27.8% | +7.5% | Lamb Weston raises FY2027 outlook as North America volume growth continues |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-17T00:02:52.217204+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T11:50:44.121590+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T11:50:44.118733+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.