Domino's Pizza, Inc. · DPZ · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Domino’s: Order growth continues as ticket and franchisee pressures persist

Domino’s current analysis supports a mixed demand picture: order growth, new-product rollout, loyalty initiatives, and delivery expansion provide support, but ticket pressure, franchisee profitability concerns, and lower guidance sentiment temper the outlook. The evidence is not sufficient to conclude that resilient demand will fully offset those pressures.

Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $10.29B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $4.36
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.17B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -3.4% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -3.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
DPZSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter’s maintained guidance and confident growth framing, the current analysis emphasizes lower guidance sentiment, low-end low-single-digit U.S. same-store sales growth, and a 125–150 unit-opening range. Management also introduced the Domino product and highlighted continued third-party delivery expansion, while franchisee profitability became a more prominent concern.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment moved from maintained in the prior quarter to lowered in the current analysis; the supplied analysis cites low-end low-single-digit U.S. same-store sales growth and a 125–150 unit-opening range.

Key takeaways

  • Order-count growth remains the main performance support, while weaker ticket metrics reflect consumer pressure.
  • The new Domino product and expanded third-party delivery are intended to add occasions and reach.
  • Management is balancing growth initiatives with franchisee profitability, a reduced unit-opening range, and continued repurchases.

Management priorities

  • Scale the Domino product and accelerate successful ideas across markets.
  • Improve execution through DomOS, orchestration tools, marketing, and loyalty initiatives.
  • Support franchisee profitability while maintaining disciplined capital returns and monitoring leverage.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
DPZ REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $1B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $1B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $1B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $1B Q2 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2549.0%
Neutral2549.0%
Bearish12.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$300.74Current
$315Low
$440.32Average
$612High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainOct 5, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 23, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 10, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 2, 2026
Show 46 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $300.74. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$357$307.48 +18.7%Oct 9, 2026
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationAnalyst unavailable$340$297.27 +13.1%Oct 6, 2026
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$325$297.12 +8.1%Sep 23, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsAnalyst unavailable$353$350.95 +17.4%Aug 10, 2026
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$420$333.67 +39.7%Jul 21, 2026
See 138 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized for its Domino's-branded pizzas, which are distributed via a vast network of both corporate-owned and independently franchised outlets. Beyond its flagship product, the menu also encompasses a variety of other offerings, including oven-baked sandwiches, pasta dishes, boneless and winged chicken, various bread and dip accompaniments, desserts, and soft drink beverages. As of January 2, 2022, the enterprise boasted approximately 18,800 locations spanning 90 global markets. Established in 1960, Domino's Pizza, Inc. is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Historical context

All DPZ earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-13T15:03:17.071913+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-13T01:23:11.860783+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T16:00:47.429179+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T16:00:47.426076+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.